股指期货周报-20260109

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the document. 2. Core View of the Report - A-share major indices rose significantly this week, with the Science and Technology Innovation 50 Index up over 9%. The four stock index futures also increased, with small and mid-cap stocks outperforming large-cap blue-chip stocks. The market had a good start in the first trading week of 2026. Market trading activity rebounded significantly compared to last week, and northbound capital trading became active again. [5][87] - Overseas, the number of initial jobless claims in the US last week was lower than expected, and the number of Challenger corporate layoffs in December hit a 17 - month low. Domestically, in December, both CPI and PPI increased, with the year - on - year increase of CPI expanding and the month - on - month change turning from decline to increase, and the decline of PPI narrowing. The three official PMI indices announced before the holiday rebounded from below the boom - bust line to the expansion range. Multiple factors support the upward movement of A - shares. [87] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Market Review | Futures/Spot | Contract/Index Name | Weekly Change (%) | Friday Change (%) | Closing Price | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Futures | IF2603 | 3.13 | 0.71 | 4743.8 | | | IH2603 | 3.63 | 0.62 | 3134.8 | | | IC2603 | 9.17 | 2.99 | 8037.8 | | | IM2603 | 8.23 | 3.07 | 8048.4 | | Spot | CSI 300 | 2.79 | 0.45 | 4758.92 | | | SSE 50 | 3.40 | 0.39 | 3134.32 | | | CSI 500 | 7.92 | 2.05 | 8056.69 | | | CSI 1000 | 7.03 | 1.98 | 8129.18 | [8] 3.2. News Overview - The US ISM manufacturing index in December 2025 slightly decreased from 48.2 to 47.9, remaining below 50 for 10 consecutive months and hitting a new low since October 2024. The ISM services PMI index rose 1.8 points to 54.4, the highest since October 2024. [11] - ADP data showed that private - sector employment in US enterprises increased by 41,000 in December, reversing the previous month's decline but lower than market expectations. The number of JOLTS job openings in the US in November 2025 dropped to 7.146 million, far lower than the expected 7.6 million, hitting a new low since September 2024. The number of layoffs in December was 35,553, a 17 - month low. [11] - On January 9, the National Bureau of Statistics announced that in December 2025, China's CPI increased by 0.8% year - on - year (previous value: 0.7%) and 0.2% month - on - month (previous value: - 0.1%); PPI decreased by 1.9% year - on - year (previous value: - 2.2%) and increased by 0.2% month - on - month (previous value: 0.1%). [11] 3.3. Weekly Market Data - Domestic Major Indices: The Shanghai Composite Index rose 3.82% weekly, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 4.40%, the Science and Technology Innovation 50 Index rose 9.80%, the SME 100 Index rose 4.94%, and the ChiNext Index rose 3.89%. [14] - Overseas Major Indices (as of Thursday): The S&P 500 rose 0.92%, the UK FTSE 100 rose 0.94%, the Nikkei 225 rose 3.18%, and the Hang Seng Index fell 0.41%. [15] - Industry Sector Performance: Most industry sectors rose, with the comprehensive, national defense and military industry, and media sectors strengthening significantly. Only the banking sector fell. [19] - Industry Sector Main Capital Flow: Main capital in most industries showed a net outflow, with significant net outflows in the electronics, power equipment, and communication sectors. [22] - SHIBOR Short - Term Interest Rates: SHIBOR short - term interest rates rose and then fell, and capital prices remained at a low level. [27] - Other Data: This week, major shareholders had a net reduction of 11.98 billion yuan in the secondary market, and the market value of restricted shares lifted was 164.993 billion yuan. Northbound capital had a total trading volume of 1266.11 billion yuan. The basis of the main contracts of IF, IH, IC, and IM strengthened. [30][38] 3.4. Market Outlook and Strategy - A - share major indices and the four stock index futures rose this week, and small and mid - cap stocks were stronger than large - cap blue - chip stocks. Multiple factors support the upward movement of A - shares. The economic climate has returned to the expansion range, and inflation recovery has a positive impact on the stock market at the macro - level. [87] - The US labor market is showing a mild recovery, pushing up the US dollar exchange rate. However, due to the settlement needs of export enterprises and the expectation of economic recovery, the RMB is still in an appreciation channel, and the exchange rate remains strong, supporting the expectation of loose monetary policy in the first quarter. [87] - Since the Spring Festival this year is relatively late, the market has begun to trade the policy expectations of the Two Sessions to be held in early March in advance, and the spring market of A - shares is significantly advanced. [87]