Ruida Futures(SZ:002961) Rui Da Qi Huo·2026-01-09 09:12Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - Corn futures oscillated and closed higher this week, with the main 2603 contract closing at 2263 yuan/ton, up 37 yuan/ton from last week. The US corn is entering the export peak season with high short - term supply pressure, but good export conditions support its price. In China, the corn purchase in the Northeast has exceeded half, reserve and imported corn supplies are increasing, and farmers are still reluctant to sell. Feed and deep - processing enterprises' inventories are rising, and low inventories at ports and downstream enterprises support the price. However, the driving force for continuous increase needs further observation, so it's advisable to wait and see [6]. - Dalian corn starch futures also oscillated and closed higher, with the main 2603 contract closing at 2535 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton from last week. As of January 7, the total starch inventory of corn starch enterprises was at a high level, indicating supply pressure. But some downstream customers are repurchasing corn starch due to the large increase in tapioca starch price, so it's necessary to pay attention to the pre - Spring Festival stocking. Affected by the rise in corn price, starch prices followed suit, and short - term waiting and seeing is recommended [8]. Summary by Directory 1. Zhoudu Yaodian Xiaojie (Weekly Key Points Summary) Corn - Market Review: The main 2603 contract of corn futures closed at 2263 yuan/ton, up 37 yuan/ton from last week [6]. - Market Outlook: The US corn is in the export peak season with high supply pressure, but good exports support the price. In China, as of December 29, 1.17 billion tons of corn had been purchased in the Northeast. After New Year's Day, reserve and imported corn supplies increased, farmers were reluctant to sell, deep - processing enterprises' inventories rose, and feed enterprises maintained rigid procurement. Low inventories at ports and downstream enterprises support the price, but the driving force for continuous increase needs observation [6]. Corn Starch - Market Review: The main 2603 contract of Dalian corn starch futures closed at 2535 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton from last week [8]. - Market Outlook: As of January 7, the total starch inventory of corn starch enterprises was 1.125 million tons, up 0.20 million tons from last week, with a weekly increase of 0.18%, a monthly increase of 2.09%, and a year - on - year increase of 25.14%. High inventory means supply pressure, but some downstream customers are turning back to corn starch due to tapioca starch price increase. Pay attention to pre - Spring Festival stocking [8]. 2. Qixian Shichang Qingkuang (Futures and Spot Market Situation) Futures Price and Position Changes - The 3 - month contract of corn futures oscillated and closed higher, with a total position of 1,049,843 lots, up 40,582 lots from last week. The 3 - month contract of corn starch futures also oscillated and closed higher, with a total position of 197,160 lots, up 1,671 lots from last week [14]. Top 20 Net Position Changes - The top 20 net position of corn futures this week was - 146,474, compared with - 168,889 last week, indicating a decrease in net short positions. The top 20 net position of starch futures was - 40,680, compared with - 31,610 last week, indicating an increase in net short positions [20]. Futures Warehouse Receipts - The registered warehouse receipts of yellow corn were 36,555 lots, and those of corn starch were 12,477 lots [26]. Spot Price and Basis - As of January 8, 2026, the average spot price of corn was 2351.37 yuan/ton. The basis between the active 3 - month contract of corn and the spot average price was + 88 yuan/ton [31]. - The spot price of corn starch in Jilin was 2700 yuan/ton and 2800 yuan/ton in Shandong, remaining stable this week. The basis between the 3 - month contract of corn starch and the spot price in Changchun, Jilin was 165 yuan/ton [35]. Futures Inter - month Spread - The 3 - 5 spread of corn was - 9 yuan/ton, at a medium level in the same period. The 3 - 5 spread of starch was - 43 yuan/ton, also at a medium level in the same period [41]. Futures Spread between Starch and Corn - The spread between the 3 - month contracts of starch and corn was 272 yuan/ton. As of Thursday this week, the spread between Shandong corn and corn starch was 424 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan/ton from last week [48]. Substitute Spread - As of January 8, 2026, the average spot price of wheat was 2511.44 yuan/ton, and that of corn was 2351.37 yuan/ton. The wheat - corn spread was 160.07 yuan/ton. In the second week of 2026, the average spread between tapioca starch and corn starch was 626 yuan/ton, narrowing 35 yuan/ton from last week [55]. 3. Chan Ye Qingkuang (Industrial Chain Situation) Corn Supply Side - As of January 2, 2026, the domestic trade corn inventory in Guangdong Port was 478,000 tons, up 93,000 tons from last week; the foreign trade inventory was 294,000 tons, down 30,000 tons. The total corn inventory of the four northern ports was 1.538 million tons, down 75,000 tons week - on - week, and the shipping volume was 593,000 tons, down 74,000 tons week - on - week [45]. - As of January 8, the overall corn selling progress was 48%, up 4% from last week and 3% from the same period last year. Different provinces showed varying progress [57]. - In November 2025, China's ordinary corn imports were 560,000 tons, the highest this year, an increase of 260,000 tons (86.67%) from the same period last year and 200,000 tons from the previous month [61]. - As of January 8, the average inventory of national feed enterprises was 30.10 days, up 0.18 days from last week, a week - on - week increase of 0.60% and a year - on - year decrease of 6.81% [65]. Demand Side - At the end of the third quarter, the national pig inventory was 436.8 million, up 9.86 million (2.3%) year - on - year and 12.33 million (2.9%) quarter - on - quarter. As of the end of October, the inventory of breeding sows was 30.9 million, down 450,000 (1.12%) month - on - month [69]. - As of January 2, 2026, the self - breeding and self - raising pig farming profit was - 34.59 yuan/head, and the profit from purchasing piglets was - 48.35 yuan/head [73]. - As of January 8, 2026, the corn starch processing profit in Jilin was - 49 yuan/ton. The corn alcohol processing profit was - 510 yuan/ton in Henan, - 826 yuan/ton in Jilin, and - 289 yuan/ton in Heilongjiang [78]. Corn Starch Supply Side - As of January 7, 2026, the total corn inventory of 96 major corn processing enterprises in 12 regions was 3.54 million tons, with an increase of 1.32% [82]. - From January 1 - 7, 2026, the national corn processing volume was 627,900 tons, down 3,200 tons from last week; the national corn starch output was 324,800 tons, down 2,700 tons from last week; the weekly operating rate was 59.37%, down 0.49% from last week. As of January 7, the total starch inventory of national corn starch enterprises was 1.125 million tons, up 2,000 tons from last week, with a weekly increase of 0.18%, a monthly increase of 2.09%, and a year - on - year increase of 25.14% [86]. 4. Qiquan Shichang Fenxi (Option Market Analysis) - As of January 9, the main 2603 contract of corn oscillated and rose, and the corresponding option implied volatility was 12.23%, up 0.91% from 11.32% last week. The implied volatility rebounded this week and was at a relatively high level compared to the 20 - day, 40 - day, and 60 - day historical volatilities [89].