碳酸锂市场周报：刚需采买降库放缓，锂价或将震荡运行-20260109

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints - The lithium carbonate futures main contract showed a volatile and upward trend this week, with a gain of +17.69% and an amplitude of 21.15%. As of the end of this week, the main contract closed at 143,420 yuan/ton [7]. - The lithium carbonate market fundamentals may be in a stage of slight increase in supply and cautious demand, with industrial inventory basically unchanged from last week and the inventory reduction rate slowing down. It is recommended to conduct light - position volatile trading and pay attention to controlling risks [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Weekly Summary - Market Review: The lithium carbonate main contract was volatile and slightly stronger on the weekly line, with a gain of +17.69% and an amplitude of 21.15%. As of the end of this week, the main contract closed at 143,420 yuan/ton [7]. - Macro Aspect: Nine departments including the Ministry of Commerce jointly issued a document to implement a green consumption promotion campaign, with 20 specific measures in 7 aspects, supporting consumers to purchase new - energy vehicles [7]. - Fundamentals - Raw Material End: Lithium ore prices have been rising with the continuous increase in lithium carbonate prices. Due to the relatively favorable lithium carbonate futures price, there may be a certain hedging space, which has improved the raw material trading situation [7]. - Supply End: Due to the existence of hedging space in the futures market, smelters may maintain a relatively active production state after participation, and the domestic supply has shown a slight upward trend [7]. - Demand End: Downstream battery cathode material manufacturers generally have a low acceptance of the current high - price lithium, and their procurement strategies are mainly based on rigid - demand purchases. Therefore, the market sentiment remains cautious [7]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - Futures Price: As of January 9, 2026, the closing price of the lithium carbonate main contract was 143,420 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 21,840 yuan/ton. The near - far month spread of lithium carbonate was - 4,720 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 3,500 yuan/ton [9]. - Spot Price: As of January 9, 2026, the average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 140,000 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 21,500 yuan/ton. The basis of the main contract was - 3,420 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 340 yuan/ton [18]. 3.3 Upstream Market - Lithium Spodumene: As of January 9, 2026, the average price of lithium spodumene concentrate (6% - 6.5%) was 1,600 US dollars/ton, a week - on - week increase of 140 US dollars/ton. As of the latest data this week, the US dollar - to - RMB spot exchange rate was 6.9807, a week - on - week decrease of 0.13% [22]. - Lithium Mica: As of January 9, 2026, the average price of lithiophilite was 16,075 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 2,050 yuan/ton. As of the latest data, the average price of lithium mica (Li₂O: 2.0% - 3%) was 6,000 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 894 yuan/ton [26]. 3.4 Industry Situation - Supply - Imports and Exports: As of November 2025, the monthly import volume of lithium carbonate was 22,055.19 tons, a decrease of 1,825.51 tons or 7.64% from October, and a year - on - year increase of 14.66%. The monthly export volume was 759.243 tons, an increase of 513.33 tons or 208.75% from October, and a year - on - year increase of 249% [32]. - Production: As of December 2025, the monthly output of lithium carbonate was 56,820 tons, an increase of 2,840 tons or 5.26% from November, and a year - on - year increase of 50.08%. The monthly operating rate was 43%, a month - on - month decrease of 5% and a year - on - year decrease of 32% [32]. 3.5 Industry Situation - Downstream Demand - Hexafluorophosphate Lithium: As of January 9, 2026, the average price of hexafluorophosphate lithium was 157,500 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 22,500 yuan/ton. As of November 2025, the monthly output of electrolyte was 231,050 tons, an increase of 12,150 tons or 5.55% from October, and a year - on - year increase of 37.08% [35]. - Lithium Iron Phosphate: As of the latest data this week, the average price of lithium iron phosphate (power type) was 47,100 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 2,000 yuan/ton. As of December 2025, the monthly output of lithium iron phosphate cathode materials was 269,330 tons, an increase of 440 tons or 0.16% from November, and a year - on - year increase of 32.48%. The monthly operating rate was 60%, a month - on - month decrease of 3% and a year - on - year decrease of 6% [39]. - Ternary Materials: As of December 2025, the monthly output of ternary materials was 60,430 tons, a decrease of 1,090 tons or 1.77% from November, and a year - on - year increase of 16.26%. The monthly operating rate was 50%, a month - on - month decrease of 1% and a year - on - year increase of 5%. As of the latest data this week, the prices of ternary materials 811 type, 622 type, and 523 type continued to rise [44]. - Lithium Manganate: As of December 2025, the monthly output of lithium manganate was 10,030 tons, a decrease of 180 tons or 1.76% from November, and a year - on - year increase of 1.52%. As of the latest data this week, the average price of lithium manganate was 49,000 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 4,000 yuan/ton [48]. - Lithium Cobaltate: As of the latest data this week, the average price of lithium cobaltate was 388,000 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 13,800 yuan/ton. As of December 2025, the monthly output of lithium cobaltate was 15,770 tons, a decrease of 280 tons or 1.74% from November, and a year - on - year increase of 118.72% [51]. 3.6 Industry Situation - Application - New - Energy Vehicles - Sales: As of November 2025, the penetration rate of new - energy vehicles was 47.48%, a month - on - month increase of 0.74% and a year - on - year increase of 7.18%. The monthly production was 1.88 million vehicles, a month - on - month increase of 6.09%; the sales volume was 1.823 million vehicles, a month - on - month increase of 6.3% [53]. - New - Energy Vehicles - Exports: As of November 2025, the cumulative export volume of new - energy vehicles was 2.315 million, a year - on - year increase of 102.89% [58]. 3.7 Option Market - According to the option parity theory, the premium or discount of the synthetic underlying asset is - 0.28, presenting a reverse arbitrage opportunity. Based on the performance of option at - the - money contracts and the fundamental situation, it is recommended to short volatility by constructing a short straddle option strategy [61].