Ruida Futures(SZ:002961) Rui Da Qi Huo·2026-01-09 09:10Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - This week, the cost support of the natural rubber market strengthened, and rubber prices showed a strong consolidation after surging. The import rubber market's offer prices rose, but the spot purchase price was lower than that of the far - month contracts. Factory restocking was in moderation. The futures market maintained a strong and volatile pattern, and domestic spot prices followed the upward trend. Downstream purchasing willingness was relatively weak, mainly for moderate and necessary restocking, and the overall market trading atmosphere was average with light actual transactions [7]. - The Yunnan rubber - producing area in China is in the non - tapping period, and the Hainan area is at the end of the tapping season. It is expected that the Hainan area will fully enter the non - tapping period next week. Recently, the total inventory at Qingdao ports has continued to accumulate, with both bonded and general trade warehouses showing inventory increases, and the total inventory accumulation rate has expanded compared to the previous period. Before the holiday, rubber prices fluctuated at a high level. Some tire enterprises had holiday maintenance and shutdowns. Except for a small amount of restocking at low prices, most enterprises were in a wait - and - see mode, and their purchasing was cautious. The decline in the total outbound volume at Qingdao ports led to a significant increase in the total inventory [7]. - This week, the capacity utilization rate of domestic tire enterprises decreased. Some enterprises had maintenance arrangements around the "New Year's Day" holiday, and some enterprises continued to control production, dragging down the capacity utilization rate of sample enterprises. As the maintenance devices gradually resume operation, the capacity utilization rate of tire enterprises may increase slightly next week [7]. - The ru2605 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 15,600 - 16,400 in the short term, and the nr2603 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 12,800 - 13,250 in the short term [7]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - to - Week Summary - Market Review: The cost support of the natural rubber market strengthened this week. Import rubber offers rose, futures were volatile and strong, and domestic spot prices followed the increase. Downstream purchasing was mainly for necessary restocking, and actual transactions were light [7]. - Market Outlook: Yunnan is in the non - tapping period, and Hainan is at the end of the tapping season. Qingdao port inventory is accumulating. Before the holiday, rubber prices are high, and tire enterprises' purchasing is cautious. The capacity utilization rate of tire enterprises decreased this week and may increase slightly next week [7]. - Strategy Suggestion: The ru2605 contract is expected to fluctuate between 15,600 - 16,400, and the nr2603 contract between 12,800 - 13,250 in the short term [7]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Markets - Futures Market - Price Trend: The main contract price of Shanghai rubber futures rose by 2.72% this week, and the main contract price of 20 - grade rubber rose by 2.33% [10]. - Position Analysis: No specific analysis content provided, only the topics of the top 20 position changes of Shanghai rubber and 20 - grade rubber are mentioned [12][14]. - Inter - delivery Spread: As of January 9, the spread between the May and September contracts of Shanghai rubber was 25, and the spread between the February and March contracts of 20 - grade rubber was - 45 [20]. - Warehouse Receipts: As of January 9, the warehouse receipts of Shanghai rubber were 104,490 tons, an increase of 3,900 tons from last week; the warehouse receipts of 20 - grade rubber were 56,952 tons, a decrease of 1,007 tons from last week [26]. - Spot Market - Domestic Natural Rubber Spot Price: As of January 8, the price of state - owned whole latex was 15,800 yuan/ton, an increase of 550 yuan/ton from last week [29]. - Basis: As of January 8, the basis of 20 - grade rubber was 342 yuan/ton, a decrease of 78 yuan/ton from last week; the non - standard basis was - 1,040 yuan/ton, a decrease of 135 yuan/ton from last week [37]. 3.3 Industry Situation - Upstream - Thailand: As of January 9, the field latex in the Thai natural rubber raw material market was 56 (+1.8) Thai baht/kg; the cup lump was 52.2 (+1.1) Thai baht/kg. The theoretical processing profit of standard rubber was 24 US dollars/ton, an increase of 21 US dollars/ton from last week [41]. - Domestic Producing Areas: As of January 8, the price of fresh latex in Hainan was 13,900 yuan/ton, unchanged from last week; the Yunnan producing area was in the non - tapping period [44]. - Import Volume: In November 2025, China's natural rubber import volume was 643,600 tons, a month - on - month increase of 25.98% and a year - on - year increase of 14.69%. From January to November 2025, the cumulative import volume was 5.8716 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 16.98% [47]. - Inventory in Qingdao: As of January 4, 2026, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 548,300 tons, a month - on - month increase of 23,500 tons, an increase of 4.48%. The bonded area inventory was 88,100 tons, an increase of 8.16%; the general trade inventory was 460,300 tons, an increase of 3.80% [51]. - Downstream - Tire Capacity Utilization Rate: As of January 8, the capacity utilization rate of Chinese semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 63.78%, a month - on - month decrease of 2.75 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 13.97 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of full - steel tire sample enterprises was 55.50%, a month - on - month decrease of 2.43 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 3.37 percentage points [54]. - Tire Export Volume: In November 2025, China's tire export volume was 688,300 tons, a month - on - month increase of 5.40 and a year - on - year increase of 1.82%. From January to November, the cumulative tire export volume was 7.7321 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 3.51% [57]. - Domestic Demand (Heavy - Truck Sales): In December 2025, China's heavy - truck market sold about 95,000 vehicles (wholesale basis, including exports and new energy), a month - on - month decrease of about 16% compared to November 2025 and a year - on - year increase of about 13%. In 2025, China's heavy - truck market ended with nearly 1.14 million vehicles sold [60].