Dongguan Securities·2026-01-09 09:31Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the automotive industry, indicating an expectation that the industry index will outperform the market index by more than 10% over the next six months [2][38]. Core Insights - The automotive sector has shown a recent upward trend, with the Shenwan Automotive Index rising by 3.52% over the past two weeks, outperforming the CSI 300 Index by 1.47 percentage points [4][11]. - The report highlights the implementation of a new vehicle scrappage and replacement policy for 2026, which includes subsidies for purchasing new energy vehicles and fuel-efficient cars, aimed at boosting consumer confidence and sales [33][34]. - The report notes a significant decline in retail sales of passenger vehicles in December 2025, with a year-on-year decrease of 13%, indicating a cautious market sentiment as consumers await new subsidy policies [21][34]. Summary by Sections Automotive Industry Trends and Valuation Review - As of January 8, 2026, the Shenwan Automotive Index has increased by 1.49% since the beginning of the year, ranking 23rd among 31 industries [11][12]. - The automotive sub-sectors have also experienced growth, with the automotive parts sector rising by 4.66% and the motorcycle and other sectors increasing by 2.44% [13][14]. Industry Data Tracking - Raw material prices have seen increases, with steel prices up by 0.70%, aluminum by 6.95%, and lithium carbonate by 16.88% as of January 8, 2026 [18][19]. Industry News - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology has initiated testing and safety evaluations for smart connected vehicles equipped with autonomous driving features [20]. - The Ministry of Commerce projects that 17.67 million vehicles will be scrapped from 2024 to 2025, with an annual growth rate of 45.8% [22]. Corporate News - Xiaomi's new electric vehicle, the SU7, is expected to launch in April 2026 [26]. - Desay SV plans to issue H-shares and list on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange to enhance its international presence [28]. - Hesai Technology has been selected by NVIDIA as a lidar partner for its autonomous driving platform [30]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies like BYD and Seres, which are expanding their overseas markets and benefiting from the increasing penetration of smart driving technologies [33][35].