集运指数（欧线）期货周报-20260109

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - This week, the prices of the container shipping index (European line) futures varied. The main contract EC2602 closed down 5.4%, and the far - month contracts had declines ranging from 2 - 4%. The latest SCFIS European line settlement freight rate index was 1795.83, up 53.19 points from last week, a 3.1% increase. The spot freight rate quotations of leading shipping companies have loosened, and the geopolitical situation may improve, causing the freight rate to drop significantly. The actual implementation of the shipping companies' price increase announcements needs further attention. In addition, China's exports to the US are still under pressure, and the boost effect of the traditional peak season may be weaker than expected. It is recommended that investors be cautious and pay attention to operation rhythm and risk control, and track geopolitical, capacity and cargo volume data in a timely manner [6][35][36] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Market Review - The main contract price of the container shipping index (European line) futures decreased this week. The EC2602 contract's trading volume and open interest both declined [11][13] - The specific price changes of each contract are shown as follows: EC2602 had a weekly decline of 5.40%, a weekly drop of 98.70, and a closing price of 1729.80; EC2604 had a decline of 1.94%, a drop of 22.70, and a closing price of 1144.50; EC2606 had an increase of 4.04%, a rise of 55.40, and a closing price of 1425.80; EC2608 had an increase of 1.95%, a rise of 29.20, and a closing price of 1525.70; EC2610 had an increase of 3.99%, a rise of 42.30, and a closing price of 1102.20; EC2612 had an increase of 4.11%, a rise of 53.50, and a closing price of 1354.00. The SCFIS index had a weekly increase of 3.10, a rise of 53.19, and a closing price of 1795.83 [9] 3.2 News Review and Analysis - Ukraine's President Zelensky said during a visit to Cyprus that the negotiations with US and European partners have reached a new level, and the conflict with Russia is expected to end in the first half of 2026, which is a bearish factor [16] - A large number of US military planes flew to Europe recently, and the Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman said that the Iranian armed forces are on high alert, a neutral - bullish factor [16] - China decided to ban the export of dual - use items to Japanese military users and for military purposes, a neutral - bearish factor [16] - The People's Bank of China deployed key tasks for 2026, which is a neutral factor [16] 3.3 Weekly Market Data - The basis and spread of the container shipping index (European line) futures contracts both contracted this week [23] - Global container shipping capacity continued to grow, and the European line capacity increased slightly. The BDI and BPI declined this week, and the freight rates fluctuated slightly [27] - The charter price of Panamax ships decreased this week, and the spread between the offshore and onshore RMB against the US dollar converged [30] 3.4 Market Outlook and Strategy - The prices of the container shipping index (European line) futures varied this week. The main contract EC2602 closed down 5.4%, and the far - month contracts had declines of 2 - 4%. The latest SCFIS European line settlement freight rate index rose 3.1% week - on - week. The spot freight rate quotations of leading shipping companies have loosened, the geopolitical situation may improve, the support for the futures price has weakened, and the freight rate has dropped significantly. The actual implementation of the shipping companies' price increase announcements needs further attention. China's exports to the US are still under pressure, and investors are advised to be cautious and track relevant data in a timely manner [6][35][36]