纸浆周报：维持震荡，进口成本端仍存支撑-20260109

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The pulp futures main contract SP2605 maintained a volatile trend with a weekly increase of 0.33%. Considering the firm external quotation, cost - end support, declining port inventory, and potential mild recovery of domestic demand, the current upward trend of pulp futures may not end. It is recommended to wait for the market to stabilize and then adopt a bullish - biased trading strategy while paying attention to the digestion of port inventory [7][34] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 This Week's Market Review - The pulp futures main contract SP2605 first rose and then fell, maintaining a volatile market with a weekly increase of 0.33% [7] 3.2 Fundamental Analysis - Pulp Market Price: As of January 8, the weekly average price of imported softwood pulp was 5,581 yuan/ton, up 0.09% from last week, and the increase rate was 0.04 percentage points higher than the previous period. The weekly average price of imported hardwood pulp was 4,655 yuan/ton, up 0.74% from last week, and the increase rate was 0.59 percentage points higher than the previous period [11] - Pulp Import Volume in November: In November 2025, China imported 3.246 billion tons of pulp, with an import value of 1.8734 billion US dollars and an average unit price of 577.14 US dollars/ton. From January to November, the cumulative import volume and value increased by 5.8% and - 1.6% respectively compared with the same period last year. In October 2025, the import volume of softwood pulp was 691,200 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.06%, and the growth rate of softwood pulp imports slowed down significantly [15] - Port Inventory Situation: As of December 19, 2025, the weekly pulp inventory in major Chinese regions and ports was 1.965 billion tons, a decrease of 1.19% from last week, changing from an increase to a decrease [20] - Pulp Inventory in Major European Ports in November: In November 2025, the total inventory in European ports decreased by 1.07% month - on - month and 2.75% compared with November 2024. The decline in European wood pulp port inventory may indicate that the off - season of European demand has passed and demand is gradually recovering [23] - Downstream Pulp Operating Rates: Waste paper pulp consumption is the main way of pulp consumption in China, accounting for 63% of the total pulp consumption. Wood pulp consumption accounts for 31%, and imported wood pulp consumption accounts for 21%. Non - wood pulp consumption accounts for 6%. As of January 8, the operating load rate of double - copper paper increased by 5.45 percentage points week - on - week; the operating load rate of double - offset paper increased by 0.74 percentage points from last week; the operating load rate of white cardboard increased by 0.08 percentage points from last week; the operating load rate of household paper increased by 0.50 percentage points week - on - week [28] 3.3 Future Outlook - Arauco's January wood pulp external quotations showed an increase in some varieties. The decline in European wood pulp port inventory may indicate the end of the off - season and a recovery in demand. The external quotations are firm, providing cost - end support. The spot price of imported hardwood pulp is stable with a slight upward trend, but the downstream paper price increase is weak, squeezing corporate profits and suppressing the willingness to purchase high - priced raw materials. Considering the continued increase in external quotations, cost - end support, and declining port inventory, domestic demand may show a mild recovery. The current upward trend of pulp futures may not end, and attention should be paid to the digestion of port inventory. It is recommended to wait for the market to stabilize and then adopt a bullish - biased trading strategy [34]