棉花周报：郑棉冲高回落，种植面积调减落地-20260109

Report Summary - Report Title: Zheng Cotton Soars and Then Declines, Planting Area Reduction Confirmed - Guoxin Futures Cotton Weekly Report - Report Date: January 9, 2026 1. Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - Domestic Market: This week, Zheng Cotton soared and then declined. After the market's digestion of the reduced planting area reached its peak, the price of Zheng Cotton exceeded 15,000 yuan/ton. However, as the price rose, the pressure for long - position holders to take profits increased. After the policy expectations were realized, the market is expected to cool down and return to fundamentals. Due to the actual contraction in supply, the adjustment space for Zheng Cotton is expected to be limited, with an overall operating range of 14,400 - 15,200 yuan/ton [53]. - International Market: The international market was driven by the Chinese market, with prices soaring and then declining. Brazil's cumulative cotton exports in 2025 reached 3 million tons, a year - on - year increase of about 9%, hitting a record high. US cotton sales weakened again. The net increase in US cotton export sales in the current market year was 98,000 bales, a 27% decrease from the previous week and a 49% decrease from the average of the previous four weeks. The weak export data has a certain suppressing effect on the trend of US cotton. However, the high price difference between Chinese and US cotton may still support overall exports. In general, US cotton is still under short - term upward pressure and is expected to maintain a volatile trend [53]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Cotton Market Analysis - Futures Price: Zheng Cotton soared and then declined this week, with a weekly increase of 0.62%. ICE cotton also soared and then declined, with a weekly increase of 0.58% [9]. - Spot Price: This week, the cotton price index rebounded. The 3128 index rose by 393 yuan/ton compared with last week, and the 2129 index rose by 345 yuan/ton [14]. - Import Situation: In November, 120,000 tons of cotton were imported, a year - on - year increase of 10,000 tons. As of the second half of November, the commercial inventory of cotton was 4.6836 million tons, and the market entered an accelerated inventory accumulation stage [19][20]. - Downstream Inventory: In November, the yarn inventory was 26.33 days, a year - on - year decrease of 1.13 days. The grey fabric inventory was 32.34 days, a year - on - year increase of 0.69 days [28]. - Yarn Price: This week, yarn prices rose. The price of OEC10S yarn increased by 130 yuan/ton compared with last week, the price of C32S yarn increased by 160 yuan/ton, and the price of JC40S yarn increased by 150 yuan/ton [32]. - Warehouse Receipts and Effective Forecasts: This week, the total number of Zheng Cotton warehouse receipts and forecasts increased by 198. The number of warehouse receipts was 7,189, and the number of effective forecasts was 2,248, totaling 9,437 [37]. - Seed Cotton Acquisition: No specific acquisition situation was described in detail, only the price data chart of Xinjiang seed cotton acquisition was presented [40][41]. - US Cotton Exports: As of January [the specific day is missing], the net sales of US upland cotton exports in the current year increased by 98,000 bales, and the net sales of exports in the next year were 22,500 bales [43]. - US Weather: The proportion of abnormally dry areas in the US was 22.8%, the proportion of moderately drought - affected areas was 24.4%, the proportion of severely drought - affected areas was 11.6%, the proportion of extremely drought - affected areas was 1.6%, and the proportion of exceptionally drought - affected areas was 0.1%. The total area in drought (D1 - D4) was 37.5% [50]. 3.2后市展望 - The domestic market is expected to cool down after the policy expectations are realized and return to fundamentals, with limited adjustment space for Zheng Cotton. - The international market is affected by China. The high export volume of Brazilian cotton and the weak export data of US cotton co - exist. US cotton is under short - term upward pressure and is expected to maintain a volatile trend [53].