国信期货油脂油料周报：国际原油收涨，油脂震荡偏强-20260109

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the document. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The protein meal market: The CBOT soybeans rebounded slightly this week. The domestic soybean meal futures followed the trend of US soybeans and closed higher. The market is waiting for the USDA report next Monday. The domestic soybean meal spot transactions increased, and the short - term basis remained firm. The long - term trend depends on factors such as the USDA report, South American weather, and the outcome of China - Canada talks [6]. - The oil market: The US soybean oil and Malaysian palm oil closed higher this week. The domestic oil market showed a differentiated trend. The overall trend of oils this week was soybean oil > palm oil > rapeseed oil. The international oil market may oscillate strongly, and the domestic oil market will follow the international market. The progress of China - Canada economic and trade relations is the key to the trend of rapeseed oil next week [61][124]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Protein Meal Market Analysis - Market trend: The CBOT soybeans rebounded slightly from the bottom last week. The domestic soybean meal futures followed the US soybeans and closed higher. The domestic soybean meal spot transactions increased, and the basis remained firm. However, the news of the Canadian Prime Minister's visit to China and the uncertainty of domestic imported soybean auctions affected the market [6]. - US soybean export: The US soybean export inspection volume increased by 27% from the previous week but decreased by 24% year - on - year. As of January 1, 2026, the total export inspection volume of US soybeans in the 2025/26 season reached 16.401241 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 45.3% [11]. - South American market: In Brazil, the growth conditions of summer crops are good, with appropriate rainfall in the south. In Argentina, the northern region has sufficient rainfall, while the southern region is dry, which may affect the growth of crops [21][22]. - Domestic market: The domestic soybean inventory is at a relatively high level, and the spot price is bullish. The soybean crushing profit has rebounded, but the futures crushing profit still has a certain loss. The soybean opening rate of domestic oil mills has decreased, and the soybean meal inventory has decreased slightly [37][46]. 3.2 Oil Market Analysis - Market trend: The US soybean oil oscillated and closed higher, and the Malaysian palm oil oscillated higher. The domestic oil market showed a differentiated trend. Soybean oil followed the US soybean oil and the import cost to rise, palm oil rebounded after a low - level oscillation, and rapeseed oil rose first and then fell [61]. - International oil information: The Malaysian palm oil inventory is expected to rise to a seven - year high in December. The Indian palm oil imports may fall to an eight - month low in December. Indonesia may increase the export tax on palm oil and seal up palm oil plantations [64][66]. - Domestic oil inventory: As of the end of the first week of 2026, the total inventory of the three major domestic edible oils decreased slightly week - on - week, with a year - on - year increase. The soybean oil inventory decreased, the palm oil inventory increased, and the rapeseed oil inventory decreased [83]. 3.3 Market Outlook - Seasonal analysis: Seasonal indices of various products such as US soybeans, soybean meal, and domestic oils are provided, showing the historical seasonal trends of these products [114][117][119]. - Next - week market outlook: Technically, the short - term, medium - term, and long - term indicators of soybean meal are intertwined; those of rapeseed meal are bearish; those of soybean oil are bullish in the short - term and long - term and intertwined in the medium - term; those of palm oil are intertwined; and those of rapeseed oil are bearish. Fundamentally, for protein meal, the USDA report and South American weather are the focuses, and the outcome of China - Canada talks will affect the rapeseed meal market. For oils, the international oil market may oscillate strongly, and the domestic market will follow. The progress of China - Canada economic and trade relations is the key to the rapeseed oil market [123][124].