白糖周报：波动降低，郑糖转为震荡-20260109

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Domestically, Zhengzhou sugar showed a relatively strong sideways movement this week. Supported by pre - Spring Festival stocking, spot prices were firm. It is expected that Yunnan's sugar sales in December will exceed last year's. However, the overall supply is relatively abundant, and the market is waiting for verification of Guangxi's production. Zhengzhou sugar is under obvious pressure at the 5300 yuan/ton level and may maintain a wide - range sideways movement in the short term, with an operating range of 5000 - 5350 yuan/ton [55]. - Internationally, the international sugar market has both bullish and bearish factors. Brazil's sugar exports in December were about 2.913 million tons, a 2.9% year - on - year increase. South Brazil's cumulative sugar exports from the 2025/26 crushing season to December decreased by 4.16% year - on - year. As of December 31, 2025, India's total sugar production was about 12 million tons, a nearly 25% increase compared to the same period last year. The Indian government will review sugar mills' export performance after March 31, 2026. Overall, the international sugar market is in a low - level sideways pattern [55]. - The operation suggestion is to focus on short - term trading [56]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Sugar Market Analysis - Futures Price Trends: Zhengzhou sugar futures had a slight sideways movement with a weekly increase of 0.7%. ICE sugar futures had a low - level sideways movement with a weekly increase of 2.47% [8]. - Spot Price and Basis Trends: No specific text description of trends is provided, only data sources are given [11][12]. - Sales in Guangxi and Yunnan: No specific sales data or trend analysis is provided, only data sources are given [16][14]. - Sugar Import Situation: In November, imports were 430,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 90,000 tons. Based on the ICE sugar March 03 contract price of 14.5 cents/pound, Brazil's in - quota import cost was 4019 yuan/ton, and out - of - quota import cost was 5090 yuan/ton; Thailand's in - quota import cost was 4078 yuan/ton, and out - of - quota import cost was 5166 yuan/ton [20]. - Domestic Industrial Inventory: In the 2025/26 crushing season, the industrial inventory in November was about 700,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 58,900 tons [23]. - Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange Warehouse Receipts and Valid Forecasts: This week, the total of Zhengzhou sugar warehouse receipts and forecasts was 10,568, an increase of 1696 compared to last week. The number of warehouse receipts was 6005, and valid forecasts were 4563 [31]. - Brazil's Production Progress: In the second half of November, the cumulative crushing volume was 592 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.92%, and sugar production was 39.904 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.13% [35]. - Brazil's Bi - weekly Sugar - making Ratio: The cumulative sugar - making ratio of sugarcane in central and southern Brazil was 51.12%, compared to 48.34% in the same period last year [40]. - Brazil's Monthly Sugar Exports: In December, Brazil's sugar exports were 2.913 million tons, a 2.9% year - on - year increase [42]. - International Main Production Area Weather Conditions: Brazil's main production areas had abundant rainfall, which was beneficial to sugarcane growth. India had little precipitation, which was beneficial to sugarcane crushing [51][52]. 3.2 Market Outlook - Domestic Market: Zhengzhou sugar is expected to maintain a wide - range sideways movement in the short term, with an operating range of 5000 - 5350 yuan/ton. Attention should be paid to the production and sales data in December [55]. - International Market: The international sugar market will remain in a low - level sideways pattern [55].