国信期货苹果周报：大幅拉涨，关注节日备货情况-20260109

Group 1: Report Title and Date - The report is titled "Sharp Rise, Pay Attention to Festival Stocking Situation - Guoxin Futures Apple Weekly Report" and was released on January 9, 2026 [2] Group 2: Market Performance This Week - The main contract of apple futures, AP2605, rose sharply, with a weekly increase of 6.24% [8] Group 3: Supply - Side Situation - As of January 8, 2026, the national cold - storage apple inventory was 6.7337 billion tons, with a cold - storage inventory ratio of about 51.13%, 4.92 percentage points lower than the same period last year. The inventory is at a historically low level, providing some support for apple prices [13][36] Group 4: Demand - Side Situation Cold - Storage Shipment - As of January 9, 2026, the national cold - storage capacity ratio decreased by 2.18 percentage points, and the de - stocking rate was 8.48%. In Shandong, the cold - storage capacity ratio was 52.54%, with a two - week decrease of 1.53 percentage points. In Shaanxi, the cold - storage capacity ratio was 49.18%, with a two - week decrease of 2.56 percentage points [18] Export Volume - In November 2025, the export volume of fresh apples was about 121,600 tons, a month - on - month increase of 51.28% and a year - on - year increase of 12.42%. The new - season apple listing was delayed, and the export volume recovered in November due to increased overseas demand as Christmas approached [20] Spot Price - As of January 9, the apple price in Qixia, Yantai, Shandong was stable. The intended collection price of first - and second - grade apples above 80 was 3.7 - 4.0 yuan/jin for farmers' piece - red apples, 4.0 - 4.7 yuan/jin for striped apples, and 4.2 - 5.2 yuan/jin for merchants' goods. The overall transaction was stable, and customers started packaging gift boxes [32] Group 5: Weekly Viewpoint - The low inventory provides support for apple prices. The cold - storage capacity ratio is decreasing, and the de - stocking rate is increasing. The export volume is expected to continue to grow in the first quarter. The Spring Festival is postponed this year, extending the stocking time. With sufficient supply and increased farmers' willingness to sell, merchants are purchasing cost - effective goods. The market is strong, and the operation suggestion is to take a bullish - on - oscillation approach, while paying attention to festival stocking [36]