鸡蛋：现货上涨时点将至，盘面多头思维逐步占优

Group 1: Investment Rating - No investment rating provided in the report Group 2: Core Viewpoints - Since the start of 2026, egg spot prices have shown signs of strengthening, and they are expected to gradually gain upward momentum from January [2] - Due to continuous losses in chicken farming in 2025, the enthusiasm for replenishing chicken seedlings in the second half of the year reversed compared to the first half, leading to a significant decline in the pressure of newly - opened laying hens in the first half of 2026 [5][8] - With supply shrinking and demand increasing during the period from after New Year's Day to before the Spring Festival, spot prices are expected to start rising [12] - In the first half of 2026, a long - position thinking should be maintained for egg futures, with strategies such as buying on dips for futures contracts in the first half of 2026 or adopting a long - near - short - far strategy [15] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Chicken Farming Profit - In 2025, the egg - chicken farming industry almost suffered losses throughout the year, with only small profits during the egg - price rebounds at the beginning of the year and in September [5] Chicken Seedling Replenishment - Since July 2025, the sample chicken - seedling replenishment volume (accounting for 50% of the actual replenishment) has been declining year - on - year, with the decline rate increasing monthly in the second half of the year. The year - on - year decline rates of single - month sales from August to December were 9.4%, 14.1%, 12.7%, 13.4%, and 13.9% respectively [8] In - production Laying Hen Inventory - It is estimated that from January to May 2026, the number of newly - opened laying hens will remain at a low level, and the in - production inventory in the industry is expected to gradually decrease [8] - The data shows the in - production laying hen inventory, newly - opened hens, hens to be culled, and their ratios from December to May, with the newly - opened hens being about 10% less than the hens to be culled each month from January to May [10] Demand - During the period from after New Year's Day to before the Spring Festival, both the procurement demand of food factories and the household procurement demand of residents are expected to increase due to festival demand [12] Strategy - In the first half of 2026, maintain a long - position thinking for egg futures, buy on dips for futures contracts in the first half of the year, or adopt a long - near - short - far strategy. Pay attention to the risk of basis convergence and the trading rhythm between expectations and reality [15]