偏多因素扰动，煤焦偏强震荡：煤焦日报-20260109

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Group 2: Core Views - For coke, as of the week ending January 9, the total daily coke output of sample independent coking plants and steel mill coking plants was 1.1045 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 9,000 tons. The daily hot metal output of 247 downstream steel mills was 2.295 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 20,700 tons. The resumption of production of downstream steel mills was slow, and the improvement of coke fundamentals was limited. The relative positive factor was the strong supply - side expectation of upstream coking coal. Although the coke's own fundamentals were still weak, economic policy expectations, "anti - involution" policy expectations, and downstream winter storage replenishment expectations drove the coke futures to rebound from the low level [5][32]. - For coking coal, as of the week ending January 9, the daily output of clean coal from 523 coking coal mines nationwide was 734,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 44,000 tons, and 69,000 tons lower than the same period last year. In terms of demand, as of the week ending January 9, the total daily coke output of sample independent coking plants and steel mill coking plants was 1.1045 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 9,000 tons. After New Year's Day, coking coal was expected to enter a pattern of increasing supply and demand. The short - term fundamentals were difficult to improve significantly, but economic policy expectations, "anti - involution" policy expectations, downstream winter storage replenishment expectations, and the expectation of coal mine production cuts during the Spring Festival drove the coking coal futures to rebound from the low level [5][32]. Group 3: Summary by Directory Industry News - The Ministry of Water Resources aimed to maintain large - scale and high - level water conservancy infrastructure construction and investment in 2026, ensuring a good start for water conservancy work in the 15th Five - Year Plan [8]. - On January 9, the price of anthracite in the Jincheng market remained stable, with the ex - factory price of washed anthracite medium lumps at 890 yuan/ton and washed anthracite small lumps at 900 yuan/ton, both including tax [9]. Spot Market - For coke, the ex - warehouse price of quasi - first - grade coke at Rizhao Port was 1,470 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 3.29%, a month - on - month decrease of 3.29%, a year - on - year decrease of 13.02%, and a decrease of 10.37% compared with the same period. The ex - warehouse price of quasi - first - grade coke at Qingdao Port was 1,470 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 1.38%, a month - on - month increase of 1.38%, a year - on - year decrease of 9.26%, and a decrease of 7.55% compared with the same period [10]. - For coking coal, the price of Mongolian coking coal at the Ganqimao Port was 1,110 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 0.89%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.77%, a year - on - year decrease of 5.93%, and a decrease of 5.93% compared with the same period. The price of Australian - produced coking coal at Jingtang Port was 1,540 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 1.32%, a month - on - month increase of 1.99%, a year - on - year increase of 3.36%, and an increase of 3.36% compared with the same period. The price of Shanxi - produced coking coal at Jingtang Port was 1,650 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 2.94%, a month - on - month decrease of 2.94%, a year - on - year increase of 7.84%, and an increase of 7.84% compared with the same period [10]. Futures Market - The closing price of the active coke futures contract was 1,748.0 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.83%. The highest price was 1,773.0 yuan/ton, the lowest price was 1,719.0 yuan/ton, the trading volume was 22,309, a decrease of 25,522, and the open interest was 38,048, an increase of 113 [14]. - The closing price of the active coking coal futures contract was 1,195.5 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.71%. The highest price was 1,210.0 yuan/ton, the lowest price was 1,162.0 yuan/ton, the trading volume was 1,500,705, a decrease of 765,002, and the open interest was 519,612, an increase of 16,750 [14]. Related Charts - The report presented various inventory charts for coke and coking coal, including the inventory of 230 independent coking plants, port coke inventory, 247 steel mill coking plant inventory, total coke inventory, mine - mouth coking coal inventory, independent coking plant coking coal inventory, port coking coal inventory, and 247 sample steel mill coking coal inventory [14][15][16][17][18][20][21][23]. - Other charts included domestic steel mill production, Shanghai terminal wire and screw procurement volume, coal washing plant production, and coking plant operation [26][27][30][31]. Market Outlook - The analysis of coke and coking coal was the same as the core views, emphasizing the current production situation, the limited improvement of fundamentals, and the positive factors driving the futures to rebound from the low level [32].