白糖周报：白糖市场低位震荡，成本支撑与供应压力博弈-20260109

Report Title - "Sugar Market in Low-level Fluctuation: Game between Cost Support and Supply Pressure - Sugar Weekly Report from December 29, 2025, to January 2, 2026" [1] Report Author - Yang Jiangtao, with practice certificate number F03117249 and trading consultation number Z0022644, contact: 0371 - 58620082 [2] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - In the next 1 - 2 weeks, the main sugar contract will continue to fluctuate in the range of 5,200 - 5,300 yuan per ton, and a directional breakthrough awaits new drivers [3] - The current market is in a low-level fluctuation stage. The core contradiction between long and short lies in the game between supply - side pressure (domestic peak crushing period and a sharp increase in warehouse receipts) and cost support (domestic sugar mill and import cost lines) [3] - The decline in futures positions shows strong market wait - and - see sentiment. Prices are supported near the cost line, but the upside is limited by warehouse receipt pressure and global production increase expectations [3] Summary by Directory 1. Market Review 1.1 Weekly Review - Futures: The closing price of the No. 11 sugar continuous contract decreased by 1.05% to 15.01, and the closing price of the Zhengzhou sugar main contract decreased by 0.64% to 5,251 [5] - Spot: Nanning's current price decreased by 0.37% to 5,320 yuan/ton, Liuzhou's by 0.38% to 5,310 yuan/ton, and Kunming's by 0.38% to 5,180 yuan/ton, while Rizhao Lingyunhai remained unchanged at 5,780 yuan/ton [5] - Basis: The basis between Liuzhou sugar and the main contract increased by 31.11% to 59 yuan/ton [5] - Warehouse Receipts: The number of warehouse receipts increased by 2.86% to 5,182, and the effective forecast increased by 163.20% to 3,690. The total of warehouse receipts and effective forecasts increased by 37.76% to 8,872 [5] - Market Sentiment: The bullish ratio of Zhengzhou sugar increased by 5 percentage points to 30%, the bearish ratio decreased by 5 percentage points to 50%, and the neutral ratio remained at 20% [5] 1.2 Domestic Futures and Spot - Not detailed in the provided content 1.3 Raw Sugar Futures - Not detailed in the provided content 2. Fundamental Analysis 2.1 China's Sugar Production and Sales - Not detailed in the provided content 2.2 Production and Sales in Major Domestic Sugar - cane Producing Areas - Not detailed in the provided content 2.3 Production and Sales in Major Domestic Sugar - beet Producing Areas - Not detailed in the provided content 2.4 China's White Sugar Industrial Inventory - Not detailed in the provided content 2.5 China's Sugar Imports and Exports - Not detailed in the provided content 2.6 China's Major Sugar Importing Countries - Not detailed in the provided content 2.7 China's Sugar Import Cost and Profit - For Brazil, the in - quota processing cost decreased by 2.57% to 3,948 yuan/ton, and the out - of - quota by 2.61% to 5,034 yuan/ton; the in - quota import profit increased by 5.77% to 1,832 yuan/ton, and the out - of - quota by 21.50% to 746 yuan/ton [30] - For Thailand, the in - quota processing cost decreased by 2.47% to 3,993 yuan/ton, and the out - of - quota by 2.53% to 5,092 yuan/ton; the in - quota import profit increased by 5.74% to 1,787 yuan/ton, and the out - of - quota by 23.08% to 688 yuan/ton [30] 3. International Market Fundamentals 3.1 Brazil's Available Sugar Volume - Not detailed in the provided content 3.2 Brazil's Sugar - cane Crushing Volume - Not detailed in the provided content 3.3 Brazil's Sugar Production - Not detailed in the provided content 3.4 Brazil's Ethanol Production - Not detailed in the provided content 3.5 Brazil's Sugar Imports and Exports - Not detailed in the provided content 3.6 International Raw Sugar Premium and Freight Costs - Not detailed in the provided content