玉米周报：结构性偏紧支撑，期货近强远弱-20260109

Report Title - Structural Tightness Supports, Futures Near-Strong and Far-Weak - Guoxin Futures Corn Weekly Report, dated January 9, 2026 [2] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - In the past week, corn spot prices fluctuated, with the Northeast producing area being relatively strong, North China slightly weaker, and port spot prices adjusting. Futures prices were weak first and then strong, with a significant weekly increase. The main contract C03 approached the high point in early December again. The basis of Jinzhou to C03 weakened, and the spread between C3 and C5 strengthened significantly. The near-term futures performed stronger than the spot, mainly due to the valuation repair under the high discount of futures and the continuously low level of warehouse receipts. Looking ahead, on the supply side, although this year's corn production increased, the low carry-over inventory at the beginning of the year and the poor quality of North China corn effectively absorbed the pressure of the bumper harvest in Northeast China. On the demand side, feed enterprises' inventory has reached a normal level. With continuous losses in the breeding industry and a pessimistic outlook for feed demand, feed enterprises have insufficient motivation to further increase their inventory levels. The raw material inventory of deep-processing enterprises is still at a low level but has increased month-on-month. Considering the weak downstream consumption, there is room for further replenishment in the later stage, but the intensity is also limited. From the perspective of intermediate inventory, the inventory at northern ports failed to continue to rise in late December and instead declined; the inventory at southern ports increased, but the absolute level is still low. The overall circulation inventory reflects that the situation of structural tightness has not been completely eliminated. At the same time, the auction of policy grain sources is also progressing in an orderly manner, which is conducive to supplementing the market's available grain sources. In general, the corn market is supported by the low inventory of the middle and lower reaches in the short term and is relatively resistant to decline, but the large supply-demand background is difficult to support much room for price increases. It is expected that the market will fluctuate within a range in the later stage. The operation strategy is to adopt a fluctuating mindset [7]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Weekly Analysis and Outlook 1.1 Corn Futures Market Changes - Not provided 1.2 Corn Spot Market Changes - Not provided 1.3 Corn Spot Market: Regional Spread - Not provided 1.4 Corn Sales Progress - Not provided 1.5 Corn Imports - Not provided 1.6 Feed and Breeding Demand - Not provided 1.7 Feed and Breeding Demand: Feed Production - Not provided 1.8 Deep-Processing Demand - Not provided 1.9 Substitutes - Not provided 1.10 Northern Port Corn Dynamics - Not provided 1.11 Southern Port Corn Dynamics - Not provided 1.12 Southern Port Grain Dynamics - Not provided 2. Domestic Corn Market Dynamics 2.1 Corn Starch Futures - Not provided 2.2 Corn Starch Spot - Not provided 2.3 Corn - Starch Spread - Not provided 2.4 Corn Starch Production and Inventory - Not provided 2.5 Corn Starch Downstream Demand - Not provided 2.6 Cassava Starch - Not provided 3. International Corn Market Dynamics 3.1 US Corn Futures Market - Not provided 3.2 US Corn Planting and Growth Progress - Not provided 3.3 US Corn Export Sales - Not provided 3.4 Brazilian Corn Crop Progress - Not provided