2025年12月价格数据点评：物价的上行周期或已开启

Report Information - Report Title: 2025 December Price Data Review [2] - Date: January 9, 2026 [1] - Research Team: Fixed Income Research Team [2] - Analysts: Chen Xi, Wang Shuaizhong [3] Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - The market consensus is to "end deflation" rather than "enter inflation," expecting PPI to reach 0% in H2 2026 and -0.6% for the whole year, but the report predicts prices will enter a "positive growth rate" [4]. - The report believes that factors such as anti - involution, policy lag, overseas fiscal expansion, and "dual - carbon" initiatives will drive prices up, and if PPI环比 can maintain 0.15 - 0.2%, price year - on - year increase to 2% is just a matter of time [5][6][7]. - The upward trend of prices will confirm the start of the economic cycle, and price recovery will form the fundamental basis for the upward movement of bond yields in 2026, with the 10 - year Treasury bond expected to fluctuate between 2 - 3% and the central value around 2.5% [7]. Summary by Related Catalogs Event - In December 2025, the PPI环比 was +0.2% and positive for three consecutive months, the first time since 2022 [3]. Market Expectation vs. Report Prediction - Market expectation: PPI year - on - year negative growth rate will converge in H1 2026, and then rise to around 0% in H2, with an annual PPI year - on - year of -0.6%, essentially expecting prices to level off [4]. - Report prediction: Prices will enter a positive growth rate, with the following logics [4][5][6]: - Anti - involution restricts price decline, and the market starts to raise prices in some categories. - The price inflection point lags behind the policy inflection point. In this weak recovery, the price inflection point lagged by 1 year, and prices started to stop falling and recover in September 2025. - Overseas fiscal expansion leads to currency depreciation and rising prices of physical assets. - "Dual - carbon" initiatives may lead to a new round of "capacity reduction." Impact on the Market - In 2025, the stagnation of "non - technology" sectors was due to the market's expectation of flat prices. As prices rise, the upward movement of the economic cycle may be confirmed [7]. - Price recovery will form the fundamental basis for the upward movement of bond yields in 2026. If PPI环比 can maintain 0.15 - 0.2%, the "potential inflation of 2.0%" will form the lower limit of the 10 - year Treasury bond, with the 10 - year Treasury bond expected to fluctuate between 2 - 3% and the central value around 2.5% [7]. Data Summary - CPI Data in December 2025: CPI环比 rose 0.2%, and CPI year - on - year rose 0.8%. Core CPI环比 rose 0.2%, and core CPI year - on - year rose 1.2%. Urban CPI year - on - year rose 0.9%, and rural CPI year - on - year rose 0.6% [9][18][31]. - PPI Data in December 2025: PPI环比 rose 0.2%, and PPI year - on - year fell 1.9%. Production materials PPI year - on - year fell 2.1%, and living materials PPI year - on - year fell 1.3% [11][23][31]. - Industrial Producer Purchase Price Data in December 2025: The price环比 rose 0.4%, and the price year - on - year fell 2.1% [28][31]. - Industry Price Data in December 2025: For example, the price decline of the coal mining and washing industry narrowed by 2.9 pct year - on - year compared with November; the price of the non - ferrous metal mining and dressing industry rose 24.0% year - on - year [33].