有色日内回升，铝表现较强

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views - 沪铜: Opened lower and then rebounded during the day, with increased positions and a recovery that almost offset the previous night's decline. Short - term, the game between long and short positions intensified, and the profit - taking intention of funds rose. The weak industrial reality also pressured the futures price. The macro atmosphere dominated the price trend, and with the warming of the atmosphere during the day, commodities generally rebounded. It is advisable to continuously monitor the support of the 10 - day moving average in the short term [6]. - 沪铝: Significantly increased positions and rose, approaching the previous high. Since Wednesday, the macro atmosphere cooled and non - ferrous metals generally declined, but the aluminum price was relatively strong. This is because its macro attribute is relatively weaker than copper, and the expectation of aluminum replacing copper has been fermenting since December, with strong industrial expectations. However, the industrial side is still in a weak reality stage, and the electrolytic aluminum inventory has increased significantly. Technically, the aluminum price faces pressure at the 2021 high. It is necessary to continuously monitor the game between long and short positions [7]. - 沪镍: Declined significantly with increased positions yesterday and rebounded after hitting the bottom today. Since the end of December, the nickel price has rebounded significantly, so the recent correction has also been relatively large. At present, the industry is still in a situation of over - supply, which puts pressure on the futures price, but news from Indonesia has reversed the industry's expectations. Technically, it is necessary to continuously monitor the game between long and short positions at the 140,000 mark [8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Industry Dynamics - Copper: SMM predicts that the operating rate of the copper strip industry will continue to decline to 67.2% in January. In January, the copper price continued to hit new highs, and the terminal market's carrying capacity was on the verge of the limit. Some downstream enterprises even planned to start the Spring Festival holiday in advance, and the industry as a whole showed a "lying flat" state. The production and operation pressure of copper strip enterprises has increased significantly. The high - level operation of the copper price has continuously suppressed the release of new orders, and the order volume at the beginning of the month has dropped significantly. In addition, the adjustment of the recycled copper - related policy has led to double dilemmas of difficult raw material procurement and a significant increase in costs for tin - phosphorus bronze strip enterprises, and they have started to reduce production. Some enterprises plan to carry out year - end equipment overhauls, which also have an impact on the actual output in January. In December 2025, the overall operating rate of copper strip enterprises was 68.21%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.17 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 6.09 percentage points. Among them, the operating rate of large enterprises was 76.95%, that of medium - sized enterprises was 54.21%, and that of small enterprises was 59.02% [10]. - Aluminum: On January 8th, Mysteel's electrolytic aluminum social inventory was 718,000 tons, with a cumulative inventory increase of 80,000 tons before the New Year's Day [11]. 3.2 Relevant Charts - Copper: The report provides charts on copper basis, Shanghai electrolytic copper social inventory, LME copper cancelled warrant ratio, global copper exchange inventory, SHFE warrant inventory, and copper month - spread [12][14][15]. - Aluminum: The report includes charts on aluminum basis, aluminum month - spread, electrolytic aluminum domestic social inventory, electrolytic aluminum overseas exchange inventory, aluminum rod inventory, and Shanghai - London ratio [23][25][27]. - Nickel: The report offers charts on nickel basis, nickel month - spread, LME inventory, SHFE inventory, LME nickel trend, and nickel ore port inventory [35][37][39].