格林大华期货对国内期货市场一周行情回顾

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - From January 5 - 9, 2026, in the domestic futures market, 60 commodity futures varieties rose, 1 remained flat, and 21 declined. In the stock index futures, IH, IF, IC, and IM all rose, while in the treasury bond futures, 30 - year, 10 - year, 5 - year, and 2 - year treasury bonds all fell [1]. - Each sector in the futures market showed different trends. The agricultural products sector had mixed performances; the non - ferrous and precious metals sector had significant short - term fluctuations; the black sector was generally volatile; the energy and chemical sector had various situations such as strong expectations but weak reality for some products; and the financial futures sector had the stock index in an upward trend and the treasury bond futures showing a short - term shock [6][11][13][15][18]. Summary by Catalog 1. Agricultural Products Futures - Vegetable Oils: This week, the main contracts of soybean oil and palm oil rose by 1.68% and 1.14% respectively, while the main contract of rapeseed oil fell by 0.50%. The vegetable oil sector showed a slightly differentiated upward trend due to various factors such as holiday备货, import policies, and international oil price fluctuations [6]. - Double - Meal (Soybean Meal and Rapeseed Meal): The main contract of soybean meal rose 1.35%, and that of rapeseed meal fell 1.14%. The double - meal showed a differentiated trend, with soybean meal being stronger and rapeseed meal weaker due to customs policies and market expectations [6]. - Sugar: Zhengzhou sugar showed a strong consolidation. The market is mainly concerned about the sugar production in China, India, and Thailand. With the start of the Spring Festival stocking, there is still pressure on sugar supply, and the short - term trend is expected to be a low - level range shock [7]. - Red Dates: The price of red dates slightly increased. During the Spring Festival stocking season, the abundant supply suppresses the price. The short - term trend is expected to be a shock, and the medium - to - long - term trend may decline [7]. - Cotton: Zhengzhou cotton's upward channel was blocked after breaking through 15,000. Due to the expected reduction in cotton planting area and the early shutdown plan of textile enterprises, the short - term upward momentum may weaken, and the market is in a shock adjustment state [8]. - Apples: The apple market in different production areas showed a differentiated trend. The overall de - stocking speed is lower than last year, and the market is mainly concerned about the Spring Festival stocking demand [8][9]. - Logs: The supply - demand contradiction is prominent. The weak demand suppresses the price increase, while the low inventory limits the decline. The main contract is expected to maintain a low - level shock [10]. 2. Non - Ferrous and Precious Metals - Precious Metals: Shanghai gold had a small increase with horizontal fluctuations, and Shanghai silver had a large increase followed by a large decline. Due to factors such as margin adjustments, index weight reset, and geopolitical risks, the short - term fluctuations of precious metals intensified [11]. 3. Black Sector - Overall Situation: The black sector showed an overall fluctuating trend, with iron ore being stronger than other varieties [13]. - Coking Coal and Steel: Coking coal led the rise in the first half of the week, and rebar hit a new high and then corrected. The supply of the five major steel products increased slightly, the inventory increased seasonally, and the consumption decreased in the off - season. The rebound space depends on the winter storage intensity [13]. - Iron Ore: Iron ore hit a new high and then corrected. The daily average pig iron output increased, and the supply is expected to increase. There is a risk of price correction after the end of market replenishment [13]. - Double - Coking (Coking Coal and Coke): The double - coking showed a significant rebound and then a high - level correction. The fundamentals have no major contradictions, and the short - term is affected by supply - side rumors and winter storage expectations [14]. - Double - Silicon (Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon): The double - silicon first rose and then fell. After the news was falsified, it returned to the fundamentals. The short - term bottom support is strong due to high - level production and winter storage expectations [14]. 4. Energy and Chemical Sector - Methanol: The main contract of methanol rose 2.6%. It still faces the situation of strong expectations but weak reality. The price is expected to fluctuate widely, and a bullish approach is recommended [15]. - Urea: Urea rose 1.6%. It showed a strong shock due to reserve demand and peak - season expectations. The medium - term price center may move up, and attention should be paid to the pressure level [15]. - Bottle Chips: Bottle chips rose 0.4%. The supply increased slightly, and the demand is expected to decline before the Spring Festival. The price may be suppressed, and attention should be paid to light - position buying on dips [16]. - Rubber Series: - Natural Rubber: It first rose and then fell, with the price center moving up. The supply is expected to decrease, and the demand is expected to recover. The inventory increased this week, and it may enter a consolidation state next week [16]. - Synthetic Rubber: The BR main contract continued to strengthen. The cost support is significant, and the supply is relatively sufficient. The demand is expected to rebound slightly. There is a risk of correction, and long positions should be held with caution [17]. 5. Financial Futures Sector - Stock Index Futures: After the New Year's Day, funds flowed into the stock market, and the growth - style indexes were strong. The stock index is in a spring offensive, and long positions are recommended to be held [18]. - Treasury Bond Futures: The main contracts of treasury bond futures showed a bottom - hunting rebound. The short - term may fluctuate, and attention should be paid to the impact of the stock market [18].