金信期货观点-20260109

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - For crude oil, the oversupply pressure in 2026 is the most core driver of oil prices. Non - OPEC+ supply will increase by 1.2 million barrels per day. The return of the remaining 1.65 million barrels per day of OPEC+ production will be a key variable. Short - term fluctuations may be dominated by the Iran situation and the Russia - Ukraine war, while the medium - term downward trend remains [4]. - For PX & PTA, PX supply is expected to increase. PTA is still de - stocking, but terminal demand is weakening. Prices are expected to fluctuate at a high level with the cost side in the short term [4]. - For MEG, affected by the coal sector, the ethylene glycol盘面 rebounded. However, the medium - term supply surplus situation is difficult to change, and it is expected to fluctuate at a low level [5]. - For BZ & EB, pure benzene has high inventory pressure and is expected to fluctuate widely. Styrene is expected to be slightly stronger than pure benzene in the long - term [5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - In 2026, non - OPEC+ crude oil supply will increase by 1.2 million barrels per day, with certain increments from Brazil, Guyana, and Canada. The return of the remaining 1.65 million barrels per day of OPEC+ production will be a key variable for the market direction. Trump said Venezuela will supply 50 million barrels of oil to the US [4]. PX & PTA - PX: Domestic and overseas PX plants are operating stably. PX load can be effectively maintained. PXN has risen to a seasonal high, and supply is expected to increase. The domestic PX weekly average capacity utilization rate is 89.12%, up 0.72% from last week; the Asian PX weekly average capacity utilization rate is 79.18%, up 0.41% from last week. The PX - naphtha spread is at a high level. New PX capacity will be added in the second half of next year, and there are many maintenance plans in the second quarter [4][8]. - PTA: This week, domestic PTA plants have basically no changes. PTA is still de - stocking, but terminal demand is weakening. The PTA spot market price this week is 5,067 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan/ton from last week. The weekly average capacity utilization rate is 77.41%, up 3.21% from last week. The in - factory inventory days are 3.60 days, down 0.05 days from last week. The processing fee is 339 yuan/ton, up 3 yuan/ton from last week [4][13]. MEG - Affected by the coal sector, the ethylene glycol盘面 rebounded. The domestic ethylene glycol comprehensive capacity utilization rate is 63.06%, down 0.1% from last week. The coal - based ethylene glycol capacity utilization rate is 62.09%, up 1.61% from last week. The production profit is - 867 yuan/ton, up 24 yuan/ton month - on - month. The arrival of goods has risen to over 170,000 tons again, and the port inventory in the East China region is 690,000 tons, an increase of 34,000 tons from the previous period. The medium - term supply surplus situation is difficult to change [5][18]. BZ & EB - Pure benzene: The port inventory has further accumulated to 318,000 tons, up 18,000 tons from last week. The downstream demand is weak, and the supply - demand pattern is loose, expected to fluctuate widely. The pure benzene开工 rate is 74.38%, down 0.8% from last week [5][27][28]. - Styrene: The开工 rate has rebounded slightly from the bottom, and the port inventory has decreased slightly. The downstream 3S trends are differentiated. The long - term 3S capacity is expanding while the new styrene capacity is limited, and it is expected to be slightly stronger than pure benzene. The styrene开工 rate is 70.92%, up 0.69% from last week, and the port inventory is 132,300 tons, down 6,500 tons from last week [5][27][28]. Polyester and Terminal Weaving - The weekly average capacity utilization rate of the domestic polyester industry is 87.16%, up 0.22% from last week. The inventory levels of polyester staple fiber and filament have increased slightly. The开工 rate of sample enterprises in Jiangsu and Zhejiang weaving is 57.89%, down 1.66% from the previous data. The average terminal weaving order days are 8.68 days, down 0.72 days from last week. The average terminal weaving finished product inventory level is 27.57 days, an increase of 0.60 days from last week [22].