中航期货橡胶周度报告-20260109

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - During the period from January 7 to January 13, 2026, the rainfall in the main natural rubber producing areas in Southeast Asia increased slightly compared to the previous period. The impact on rubber tapping work increased slightly in most areas north of the equator and decreased in most areas south of the equator [6]. - This week, the natural rubber futures market fluctuated strongly. Market liquidity and risk preference, as well as the cost support from raw materials, drove up the price, but the demand for downstream tires and finished - product inventory dragged down the upward slope. Although the price is currently at the upper edge of the range and technically pressured, the center of the market's oscillation is still expected to rise as long as the macro - sentiment persists [7]. - The 2026 automobile trade - in policy will benefit more consumers than in 2025, potentially boosting new car consumption [8]. - In December 2025, the wholesale volume of new - energy passenger vehicles was 1.57 million, a year - on - year increase of 4% and a month - on - month decrease of 8%. The cumulative wholesale volume in 2025 was 15.33 million, a year - on - year increase of 25% [8]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Report Summary (PART 01) - The rainfall in the main natural rubber producing areas in Southeast Asia had different impacts on rubber tapping work in different regions during January 7 - 13, 2026 [6]. - The natural rubber futures market was bullish this week. Market liquidity, cost support from raw materials, and downstream tire demand had different effects on the price. The price was expected to rise further due to macro - sentiment [7]. - The 2026 automobile trade - in policy would benefit more consumers and potentially boost new car consumption. The new - energy passenger vehicle wholesale volume in December 2025 and the whole year had specific year - on - year and month - on - month changes [8]. 3.2 Multi - Empty Focus (PART 02) - Bullish factors: Strong demand for raw material replenishment overseas supported the price of natural rubber raw materials; the reduction of butadiene inventory pressure supported its price; market liquidity and risk preference increased [11]. - Bearish factors: The inventory of natural rubber was piling up slightly; the production and inventory of cis - butadiene rubber were high; the overall capacity utilization rate of tire enterprises was weakened by seasonal factors [11]. 3.3 Data Analysis (PART 03) - Natural rubber raw material prices: As of January 9, 2026, the prices of Thai glue and cup rubber, as well as those in Hainan and Yunnan in China, were stronger than before. The approaching of the off - season in domestic producing areas and overseas replenishment needs drove up the prices [12]. - Natural rubber inventory: As of January 4, 2026, China's natural rubber social inventory was 1.232 million tons, with a month - on - month increase of 2.5%. The inventory in Qingdao continued to pile up due to changes in inbound and outbound rates [15]. - Butadiene and cis - butadiene rubber: This week, the domestic butadiene price rose rapidly due to factors such as expected reduction in imports and strong downstream demand. The theoretical production profit of cis - butadiene rubber decreased. As of January 9, 2026, the production of cis - butadiene rubber was high and the inventory fluctuated at a high level [16][19]. - Tire enterprises: As of the week of January 9, the capacity utilization rates of all - steel and semi - steel tire sample enterprises decreased. The inventory depletion of all - steel tires was slightly better than that of semi - steel tires. The capacity utilization rate was expected to recover after the New Year's Day holiday but would decline seasonally during the Spring Festival [20]. - Price differences between rubber contracts: As of January 8, the price difference between the "RU - NR" main contracts was relatively stable, while the "NR - BR" main contract price difference narrowed, mainly affected by the stronger performance of butadiene prices [23]. 3.4后市研判 (PART 04) - Macro factors, natural rubber fundamentals, synthetic rubber fundamentals, and downstream tire demand had different impacts on the market. Market liquidity and raw material cost support were the main driving forces, while downstream demand and inventory were drag factors. The price was at the upper edge of the range, but the market's oscillation center was expected to rise as long as the macro - sentiment remained [26].