Zhong Yuan Qi Huo·2026-01-09 11:09Report Title - The report is titled "Carbonate Lithium Weekly Report (December 29, 2025 - December 31, 2025): High - level Volatility in the Carbonate Lithium Market, Game between Weakening Demand Expectations and Cost Support" [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the report Core View - In the next 1 - 2 weeks, the price of carbonate lithium will maintain a high - level shock pattern under the cost support and weakening demand expectations, with the center of gravity possibly moving slightly downward [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Lithium Salt Market Conditions - Carbonate Lithium Futures and Spot: The average price of battery - grade carbonate lithium spot dropped to 117,250 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 2.62%. The futures price of carbonate lithium decreased from 130,520 yuan/ton to 121,580 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 6.85%. The futures were at a premium to the spot, and the basis was - 4,330 yuan/ton, narrowing by 57.21% week - on - week [2][4] - Lithium Hydroxide Spot: The prices of various types of lithium hydroxide spot all increased. The price of lithium hydroxide (electro - carbon, coarse particles) increased from 102,400 yuan/ton to 109,500 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 6.93%; the price of lithium hydroxide (electro - carbon, fine powder) increased from 107,600 yuan/ton to 114,700 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 6.60%; the price of lithium hydroxide (industrial carbon) increased from 97,100 yuan/ton to 104,200 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 7.31% [4] - Carbonate Lithium Premium: The weekly change in the premium of carbonate lithium from different raw materials and enterprises was 200 yuan/ton [7] Lithium Salt Fundamentals Supply - Carbonate Lithium Production: The domestic carbonate lithium capacity utilization rate remained at a high level of 83.52%, and the production in December was expected to increase. The capacity utilization rate of lithium hydroxide decreased by 2.56 percentage points to 38.0% week - on - week, indicating some production line conversions or overhauls [2] Demand - Mid - and Downstream Consumption: The demand side showed differentiation. The operating rate of energy - storage cells remained high, but many leading cathode material manufacturers announced overhaul plans for January, indicating that the downstream demand might decline significantly month - on - month, and procurement turned to rigid demand [2] Import and Export - Lithium Ore Import: The seasonal production reduction expectation of salt lakes constituted a potential supply disturbance, and the arrival of imported lithium concentrate at ports needed to be monitored [2] - Lithium Ore Transportation Cost: The transportation costs of lithium ore from South Africa, Zimbabwe, and Nigeria remained unchanged week - on - week [28] Inventory - Carbonate Lithium Warehouse Receipt Inventory: The exchange warehouse receipt inventory increased to 20,281 lots, a significant week - on - week increase of 13.55%. The inventory in major warehouses such as Shanghai Xiangyu Speed - Transfer Warehouse and COSCO Shipping Zhenjiang Warehouse increased significantly, showing inventory accumulation pressure [2][41] Cost and Profit - Carbonate Lithium: The production cost of externally purchased lithium concentrate was 124,744 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 3.95%. The production profit was - 7,494 yuan/ton, and the loss increased by 20.91% week - on - week. The cost line provided some support for the current price [2] Lithium - battery Fundamentals - Positive Electrode Materials: Information on the market conditions, supply, demand, and cost - profit of positive electrode materials is included in the report, but specific data is not elaborated in the provided content [45][47][51][57] - Lithium - battery Materials and Batteries Import and Export: Information on the import and export of lithium - battery materials and batteries is included, but specific data is not elaborated [53][55] - New Energy Vehicles: Information on the production, sales, and other important data of new energy vehicles is included, but specific data is not elaborated [61][63] - Lithium - battery Recycling: Information on lithium - battery recycling is included, but specific data is not elaborated [59]