铝产业链周度报告-20260109

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall supply of aluminum is difficult to increase significantly, while the future demand is expected to improve, which will support the aluminum price in the long - term. However, in the short term, the off - season demand weakens, and the social inventory accumulates, so the aluminum price may maintain a high - level shock. It is recommended to allocate at low prices and pay attention to changes in macro - emotions [5]. - The price of aluminum alloy will continue to remain high due to its strong follow - up to Shanghai aluminum, tight raw materials, and the impact of illegal tax refund policies [69]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Report Summary - US economic data is mixed, with some employment data falling short of expectations, and the labor market is sluggish. The Fed's interest - rate cut expectation at the end - of - the - month meeting is still unclear, and the geopolitical premium of non - ferrous metals has heated up. - The domestic electrolytic aluminum production capacity is approaching the ceiling, with limited space for further increase. Overseas production has reduced or stopped due to power issues, and the new production increase is uncertain. The demand is in the off - season, and the downstream demand is weak. - The operating rate of domestic aluminum downstream processing leading enterprises has increased, but the cost pressure is difficult to be transmitted downstream, and the terminal's acceptance of high - priced raw materials is limited. The social inventory of aluminum ingots continues to accumulate. Although the traditional real - estate demand is average, the new energy demand is expected to boost aluminum demand, and the "aluminum replacing copper" trend will also increase demand [5]. 3.2 Multi - and Short - Focus - Bullish factors: The operating capacity of domestic electrolytic aluminum has little change, the US dollar index is in a weak position, and the domestic market has a high risk appetite [8]. - Bearish factors: The social inventory in the domestic market is accumulating, and the precious - metal market is cooling down [8]. 3.3 Data Analysis - Aluminum Bauxite: From January to November, China's cumulative output of aluminum bauxite increased year - on - year, but the output in November decreased year - on - year, with significant differentiation in major producing areas. The domestic supply is tight, while the import volume in November increased month - on - month and year - on - year, and the overseas supply may be relatively loose [18][21]. - Alumina: In 2025, the new domestic production capacity was less than expected. It is expected that in 2026, new production capacity will be added, and the supply is expected to continue to be in surplus [25]. - Electrolytic Aluminum: In November 2025, the domestic electrolytic aluminum production increased year - on - year but decreased month - on - month. The operating capacity increased slightly, and it is expected that the operating capacity will increase slightly in the future, while the proportion of molten aluminum may continue to decline [30]. - Downstream Processing: The off - season demand is weak, but the operating rate of downstream aluminum processing enterprises has increased due to the lifting of environmental protection restrictions [33]. - Inventory: The LME aluminum inventory has decreased slightly, while the SHFE aluminum inventory has increased. The social inventory of aluminum continues to accumulate [43][47]. - Price: The domestic spot discount range has narrowed, and the LME aluminum discount range has also decreased [51]. - Recycled Aluminum: In November, the domestic production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots increased month - on - month. The waste - aluminum supply is tight, and the operating rate is stable. The import volume of waste aluminum in November increased month - on - month and year - on - year [55][63]. 3.4 Market Outlook - Aluminum Alloy: It has a strong follow - up to Shanghai aluminum, and due to tight raw materials and the impact of illegal tax refund policies, the price will continue to maintain a high level [69]. - Shanghai Aluminum: In the short term, it may maintain a high - level shock. It is still recommended to allocate at low prices and pay attention to changes in macro - emotions [71].