钢矿剧烈波动后，走势回归基本面

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Steel: The production of the five major steel products increased slightly week - on - week, consumption in the off - season continued to decline, and inventory increased seasonally. After the profit of rebar recovered, production continued to rise and inventory accumulated significantly. Hot - rolled coil production increased slightly, and the total inventory decreased. The spread between hot - rolled coil and rebar may be repaired in the short term. The macro - environment has a neutral impact. As the market enters the winter storage period, there will be an increase in demand. The futures market traded the winter storage logic in advance and rebounded, and the rebound space depends on the intensity of winter storage [4]. - Iron ore: The daily average pig iron output this week was 2.295 million tons, an increase of 20,700 tons from last week and 51,300 tons from last year, increasing for the third consecutive week. It is expected to continue to rise. The iron ore shipment volume in December reached a record high, which will lead to a high arrival volume later, and the supply is expected to increase. After the end of market restocking and the arrival of a large number of shipments, there is still a risk of price correction [4]. - Trading strategy: Short - term operation [4]. 3. Summary by Related Content Steel and Iron Ore Market Performance - This week, steel and iron ore reached new highs and then declined [8]. Steel Products - Supply: The supply of the five major steel products this period was 8.1859 million tons, an increase of 73,800 tons week - on - week. Rebar production and inventory both increased, while hot - rolled coil production increased and inventory decreased. Currently, rebar production is still lower than the same period in previous years, hot - rolled coil is roughly the same as in previous years, and medium - thick plate is still higher than in previous years [14]. - Inventory: The social inventory of rebar this week was 4.6663 million tons, an increase of 113,100 tons week - on - week, a decrease of 558,400 tons month - on - month, an increase of 69,700 tons year - on - year (Gregorian calendar), and an increase of 211,500 tons year - on - year (lunar calendar) [14]. Iron Ore - Pig iron output: The daily average pig iron output of 247 steel mills was 2.295 million tons, an increase of 20,700 tons from last week and 51,300 tons from last year. The blast furnace operating rate was 79.31%, an increase of 0.37 percentage points from last week and 2.13 percentage points from last year; the blast furnace iron - making capacity utilization rate was 86.04%, an increase of 0.78 percentage points from last week and 1.80 percentage points from last year; the steel mill profitability rate was 37.66%, a decrease of 0.44 percentage points from last week and 12.99 percentage points from last year [18]. - Shipment and arrival: From December 29, 2025, to January 4, 2026, the global iron ore shipment volume was 32.137 million tons, a decrease of 4.634 million tons week - on - week. The shipment volume from Australia and Brazil was 27.427 million tons, a decrease of 3.169 million tons week - on - week. The arrival volume at 47 ports in China was 28.247 million tons, an increase of 969,000 tons week - on - week [18]. - Port inventory: The total inventory of imported iron ore at 47 ports in China was 170.4444 million tons, an increase of 3.2265 million tons week - on - week; the daily average port clearance volume was 3.3696 million tons, a decrease of 32,500 tons [18]. Important News - On January 5, the State Council Information Office held a press conference, and the person - in - charge of the Comprehensive Planning Department of the Ministry of Transport said that it would vigorously implement the renewal and digital and intelligent transformation of water transport infrastructure [5]. - According to data released by Clarksons on January 7, in 2025, the global cumulative new ship order volume was 2,036 vessels with 56.43 million compensated gross tons (CGT), a 27% decrease compared to 76.78 million CGT in 2024. Chinese shipyards received 1,421 orders with 35.37 million CGT, a 35% decrease year - on - year, ranking first globally with a market share of 63%; South Korean shipyards received 247 orders with 11.6 million CGT, an 8% increase year - on - year, ranking second with a market share of 21% [5]. - In 2025, mergers and acquisitions in the steel industry were frequent, and many enterprises optimized their layouts through equity acquisitions and asset swaps, and regional integration accelerated [6]. - From December 29, 2025, to January 4, 2026, the total transaction (signing) area of newly - built commercial housing in 10 key cities was 2.3394 million square meters, a 20.3% decrease week - on - week and a 10.9% decrease year - on - year [6]. - The 2026 Work Conference of the People's Bank of China was held from January 5th to 6th. The meeting emphasized continuing to implement a moderately loose monetary policy, giving play to the integrated effect of incremental and stock policies, and increasing counter - cyclical and cross - cyclical adjustment. It will flexibly and efficiently use various monetary policy tools such as reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts to maintain sufficient liquidity [6]. - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and other departments jointly held a symposium on the power and energy storage battery industry to deploy work on standardizing industrial competition order [7]. - The Ministry of Commerce and other 9 departments promoted green consumption of automobiles and supported consumers to purchase new energy vehicles [7].