2025年12月中国物价数据解读：物价回升的背后：补贴和输入性因素

Group 1: CPI and PPI Trends - In December 2025, China's CPI increased from 0.7% to 0.8% month-on-month, while PPI rose from -2.2% to -1.9% year-on-year[2] - The CPI reached a new high since February 2023, with a month-on-month increase of 0.2%, consistent with the seasonal average of the past three years[2] - Among eight categories, only transportation and communication, and other goods and services showed significant month-on-month increases, at 0.0% and 2.8% respectively[2] Group 2: Factors Influencing CPI - The rise in transportation costs is attributed to constraints on price reductions in the automotive industry due to anti-involution measures[2] - Subsidies for "old-for-new" vehicle exchanges and corporate subsidies may have led to an overestimation of transportation costs in the CPI[2] - The decline in oil prices has narrowed, with transportation fuel costs showing a month-on-month decrease of -1.1%, compared to a three-year average of -3.6%[2] Group 3: Other Notable Increases - The category of other goods and services saw a month-on-month increase of 2.8%, significantly higher than the three-year average of 0.2%[2] - The year-on-year increase for this category was 17.4%, driven primarily by rising prices of precious metals[2] - The household appliances category experienced a year-on-year increase of 5.9%, indicating a discrepancy between consumer perception and actual price data due to subsidies[2] Group 4: PPI Insights and Future Outlook - The transmission of upstream price increases to downstream consumer goods remains weak, with downstream living goods showing zero month-on-month change for several months[2] - The coal mining and washing industry reported a year-on-year decline of -15.7%, the only major industrial sector with a double-digit drop[2] - Looking ahead, CPI is expected to decline significantly in January 2026 due to the Spring Festival effect, but may return to above 1% thereafter[2]