铜产业链周度报告-20260109

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Core Viewpoints - The copper market is currently in a complex situation with both bullish and bearish factors. Short - term prices may remain high and volatile, and it is still recommended to allocate at low levels while paying attention to changes in macro - sentiment [42]. Summary by Directory 1. Report Summary - The report analyzes the copper industry from multiple aspects including supply, demand, and inventory. It points out that the global copper supply is facing challenges, while the demand shows different trends in various sectors. The short - term market is expected to be volatile [42]. 2. Multi - empty Focus - Bullish Factors: The global copper market is in a tight supply pattern, and the domestic market risk is relatively favorable [7]. - Bearish Factors: The inventory of domestic refined copper is increasing, and the market of precious metals is weak [7]. 3. Data Analysis - Supply - side Data - Copper Ore: In 2025, the global copper ore supply was severely disrupted, and the supply gap is expected to widen in 2026. The TC of copper concentrate remains at a low level. For example, as of the week of January 4, the Mysteel standard clean copper concentrate TC weekly index was - 44.72 dollars/tonne dry, down 0.75 dollars/tonne dry from the previous week [15][17]. - Electrolytic Copper: In December, the output of SMM Chinese electrolytic copper increased by 7.5 tons month - on - month, with a month - on - month increase of 6.8% and a year - on - year increase of 7.54%. The estimated output in January is 116.36 tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 1.2% and a year - on - year increase of 14.7% [20]. - Scrap Copper: In November, China's scrap copper imports were 20.81 tons, a month - on - month increase of 5.8% and a year - on - year increase of 19.9%. However, the supply of scrap copper is expected to tighten in 2026 [23]. - Demand - side Data - Copper Rod: In November 2025, the output of domestic refined copper rods was 82.43 tons, a month - on - month increase of 9.03%. The capacity utilization rate was 63.31%, a month - on - month increase of 7.12% [26]. - Real Estate: The Chinese real estate market is still in the adjustment period, which suppresses the demand for copper in the real estate field [30][32]. - New Energy Vehicles: In November 2025, the production and sales of new energy vehicles were 1.88 million and 1.823 million respectively, with year - on - year increases of 20% and 20.6% [35]. - Photovoltaic: The cumulative new installed capacity of photovoltaic in China from January to November 2025 was 274.89GW, a year - on - year increase of 33.25%. The new installed capacity in November was 22.02GW, a month - on - month increase of 74.76% and a year - on - year decrease of 11.92%. The global new installed capacity is expected to enter a plateau [35]. - Inventory Data - LME copper inventory decreased slightly last week, with the latest inventory at 141,075 tons. COMEX copper inventory continued to accumulate, with the latest inventory at 514,957 tons. SHFE copper inventory increased significantly in the week of December 31, with a weekly increase of 30% to 145,342 tons. As of January 8, the domestic spot inventory of electrolytic copper was 28.47 tons, an increase of 1.33 tons from January 5 [37]. - Price Data - As of January 8, the spot premium of Shanghai Wumao 1 copper was about - 30 yuan/ton, and the discount range narrowed. The LME 0 - 3 spot discount was about 16.75 dollars/ton, and the premium range decreased [40]. 4.后市研判 - The short - term copper price may maintain high - level volatility. It is recommended to allocate at low levels and pay attention to changes in macro - sentiment [42].