Report Industry Investment Ratings - Thread: ★★★, indicating a clear upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity [1] - Hot Roll: ★★★, indicating a clear upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity [1] - Iron Ore: ★★★, indicating a clear upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity [1] - Coke: ★☆☆, indicating a bullish bias but poor operability on the trading floor [1] - Coking Coal: ★☆☆, indicating a bullish bias but poor operability on the trading floor [1] - Silicon Manganese: ★★☆, indicating a clear upward trend and the market is fermenting [1] - Ferrosilicon: ★★☆, indicating a clear upward trend and the market is fermenting [1] Core Viewpoints - The steel market is in a state of weak domestic demand and high exports. The market sentiment has cooled, and the price is mainly in a range - bound oscillation [2] - The iron ore market has a relatively loose supply - demand relationship. The port inventory has increased significantly, and there is a risk of intensified high - level fluctuations [3] - The coking market's fifth - round price cut is on hold. The price is likely to be in a relatively strong oscillation, and attention should be paid to the downstream procurement volume next week [4] - The coking coal market has an abundant supply of carbon elements. The price is likely to be in a relatively strong oscillation, and the market has certain expectations for coal - related policies [6] - The silicon manganese market has a structural problem in port inventory. It is recommended to buy on dips [7] - The ferrosilicon market is affected by policies. The demand is still resilient, and it is recommended to buy on dips [8] Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - The thread's apparent demand continues to decline, production slightly rebounds, and inventory begins to accumulate. The hot - roll demand declines, production slightly rebounds, and inventory is slowly depleted with pressure to be relieved [2] - Steel mill profits are marginally repaired, blast furnaces are gradually restarted, and hot - metal production rebounds in the short term, but its sustainability is to be observed [2] - Real estate investment decline continues to expand, infrastructure and manufacturing investment growth rates continue to fall, domestic demand is weak, and steel exports remain high [2] - The market's optimistic sentiment cools, the trading floor is under pressure to fall back, and it is mainly in a range - bound oscillation in the short term [2] Iron Ore - On the supply side, global shipments decline seasonally, domestic arrivals remain high, port inventory rises significantly this week, and the number of stranded ships increases [3] - On the demand side, terminal demand is weak in the off - season, steel mill profitability declines, hot - metal production increases but there is no obvious restart in the short term [3] - Steel mill imported ore inventory continues to increase but is still at a low level, and there is still a certain expectation of winter storage replenishment [3] - The commodity market sentiment is volatile, and the iron ore's own fundamentals are relatively loose, so it is necessary to be vigilant against the risk of intensified high - level fluctuations [3] Coke - The price fluctuates mainly during the day. The fifth - round price cut is on hold, coking profits are average, and daily production slightly increases [4] - Coke inventory hardly changes, and attention should be paid to whether the downstream procurement volume increases next week [4] - The supply of carbon elements is abundant, downstream hot - metal production is likely to bottom out and rebound, and the demand for raw materials remains at an off - season level. Steel mills still have a strong sentiment of pressing prices on raw materials [4] - The coke trading floor has a premium, and the price is likely to be in a relatively strong oscillation [4] Coking Coal - The price fluctuates mainly during the day. Yesterday, the Mongolian coal customs clearance volume was 1,291 vehicles [6] - Coking coal mine production slightly decreases, and the mine restart situation is good after the New Year's Day [6] - Spot auction transactions are okay, the transaction price rises slightly driven by the trading floor price increase, and terminal inventory slightly increases [6] - Total coking coal inventory increases significantly, and production - end inventory rises significantly [6] - The supply of carbon elements is abundant, downstream hot - metal production is likely to bottom out and rebound, and the demand for raw materials remains at an off - season level. Steel mills still have a strong sentiment of pressing prices on raw materials [6] - The coking coal trading floor has a premium over Mongolian coal, and the price is likely to be in a relatively strong oscillation [6] Silicon Manganese - The price rebounds after hitting the bottom during the day. Driven by the trading floor rebound, the manganese ore spot price rises [7] - There is a structural problem in the current manganese ore port inventory, and the balance is relatively fragile [7] - Silicon manganese smelters pursue the most cost - effective option and change the manganese ore blending formula. If the reduction of oxidized ore is large, the demand for cheaper semi - carbonate ore is likely to increase [7] - Last week, the manganese ore spot transaction price rose. On the demand side, hot - metal production decreases seasonally, silicon manganese weekly production slightly decreases, and silicon manganese inventory slightly decreases [7] - It is recommended to buy on dips and pay attention to the impact of "anti - involution" [7] Ferrosilicon - The price rebounds after hitting the bottom during the day. Affected by relevant policy documents, the price is relatively strong [8] - The market's expectation of coal supply guarantee increases, and there is a certain expectation of a decline in power costs and blue - charcoal prices [8] - On the demand side, hot - metal production rebounds to a high - level range, export demand drops to above 20,000 tons, and the marginal impact is not significant [8] - Metal magnesium production increases month - on - month, secondary demand increases marginally, and overall demand is still resilient [8] - Ferrosilicon supply drops significantly, inventory slightly decreases, and attention should be paid to the impact of "anti - involution" [8] - It is recommended to buy on dips [8]
黑色金属日报-20260109
Guo Tou Qi Huo·2026-01-09 11:22