国信期货生猪周报：回归基本面，生猪震荡调整-20260109

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints - In the past week, the live hog spot price was weak first and then strong, slightly falling compared to before the New Year's Day holiday, with the southern price performing weaker than the northern price. The live hog futures fluctuated, and the main LH03 contract reached a high of 11,925 on Wednesday and then declined. The basis of the Henan spot price against LH03 generally fluctuated, the futures were generally weaker in the near - term and stronger in the far - term, and the spread between LH03 and LH05 decreased. After the New Year's Day, consumption was seasonally weak, the slaughtering end had a general acceptance of high prices. Meanwhile, large - scale farms reduced the supply at the beginning of the month and then slightly increased it, and small - scale farmers were somewhat reluctant to sell large hogs. The decrease in both supply and demand led to a lower slaughter volume, but the hog price fluctuated, indicating that supply and demand were generally in a balanced state [7]. - In the second half of January, domestic consumption will enter the pre - holiday stocking peak season, and slaughter demand will increase significantly. Considering the reduced sales plan of large - scale farms in December, the supply of small and medium - sized farmers' hogs is the key to the pre - holiday supply capacity. Considering the lagging supply of second - fattened hogs in December and the weakening price difference between fat and standard hogs, there is unlikely to be a large supply - demand imbalance during the peak season [7]. - In the medium term, according to the previous piglet birth data, the supply of standard hogs after the Spring Festival is still large, which will continue to suppress the March contract. In the long term, continuous losses will be conducive to the industry's capacity reduction, providing low - level support for distant contracts. In terms of operation, short the LH03 and LH05 contracts on rallies, and seize the low - level band - buying opportunities under the wide - range fluctuation of distant contracts [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog 3.1 1. Week - to - Week Analysis and Outlook - The past week saw the live hog spot price first weak then strong, slightly down from before the New Year's Day. Futures fluctuated. The current supply - demand is in balance. In the future, consumption will enter the peak season in mid - to - late January, but large supply - demand imbalance is unlikely. Medium - term supply pressure exists after the Spring Festival, and long - term capacity reduction may support distant contracts. Suggested operations are to short near - term contracts on rallies and buy distant contracts at low levels in bands [7]. 3.2 13. Central Reserve Frozen Pork Operations - In case of excessive price decline: At the national level, the state does not start temporary reserve purchases when the third - level early warning of excessive decline is issued, may start it when the second - level early warning is issued, and starts temporary reserve purchases when the first - level early warning is issued. Local governments follow the national practice [63]. - In case of excessive price increase: There are two scenarios for the central frozen pork reserve release. In the case of market cyclical fluctuations, the release is started when the second - level early warning of excessive increase is issued and the release intensity is increased when the first - level early warning is issued. In case of special situations such as major animal disease risks, the price increase tolerance is increased, and after the first - level early warning is issued, the release is mainly organized during key periods. Provinces can determine their own reserve release start conditions, which should generally not be higher than the central conditions [63].