2025年12月通胀数据点评：价格中枢抬升，反内卷成效巩固

Inflation Overview - In December 2025, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 0.8% year-on-year, up from 0.7% in November, marking the highest level since March 2023[1] - Month-on-month, the CPI shifted from -0.1% in November to +0.2% in December, indicating a return to positive growth[1] - Core CPI remained stable at 1.2% year-on-year for the fourth consecutive month, reflecting persistent domestic demand recovery[1] Price Drivers - Food prices increased by 1.1% year-on-year in December, with a significant contribution of 0.31% to the CPI, up from 0.06% in November[1] - Fresh vegetable prices surged by 18.2% year-on-year, while fresh fruit prices rose by 4.4%, driven by adverse weather and pre-holiday stocking demands[1] - Pork prices decreased by 14.6% year-on-year, continuing to exert downward pressure on the CPI by approximately 0.20%[1] Producer Price Index (PPI) Insights - The PPI fell by 1.9% year-on-year in December, a smaller decline compared to -2.2% in November, indicating easing industrial deflationary pressures[1] - Month-on-month, the PPI increased by 0.2%, marking the third consecutive month of positive growth[1] - Prices for production materials decreased by 2.1% year-on-year, with upstream mining prices down by 4.7%[1] Market Outlook - The upcoming Chinese New Year on February 17, 2026, may create a "Spring Festival misalignment" effect, potentially leading to a decline in January CPI due to the absence of holiday-related price increases[2] - The PPI recovery is expected to rely on sustained domestic demand and deepening supply-side reforms, with infrastructure investments anticipated to boost demand for construction materials[2] - Risks include intensified US-China trade tensions and potential underperformance of China's economic recovery[2]