国投期货软商品日报-20260109

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Cotton: ☆☆☆ [1] - Pulp: ☆☆☆ [1] - Sugar: ☆☆☆ [1] - Apple: ☆☆☆ [1] - Timber: ☆☆☆ [1] - 20 - rubber: ☆☆☆ [1] - Natural rubber: ★★★ [1] - Butadiene rubber: ☆☆☆ [1] Core Viewpoints - The report provides analyses and operation suggestions for various soft commodities, suggesting a wait - and - see approach for most commodities due to different market conditions such as supply - demand changes, production progress, and inventory levels [2][3][4] Summary by Commodity Cotton & Cotton Yarn - Zhengzhou cotton continued to correct, with the position of the main contract decreasing. Spot sales were average, and the basis was stable. As of the end of December, the national commercial cotton inventory was 578.47 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 110.11 million tons and a year - on - year increase of 9.96 million tons. Sales progress was fast, providing strong support to the market. Currently in the off - season, demand was generally stable. As of December 25th, the cumulative processed lint cotton was 669.7 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 75.8 million tons. The policy of reducing the planting area in Xinjiang was implemented, but the reduction data was lower than market expectations. Spinning mills still had demand for raw materials, with low finished - product inventories, but downstream orders were average. Zhengzhou cotton may continue to adjust, and it is advisable to wait and see [2] Sugar - Overnight, US sugar fluctuated. Internationally, the short - term focus was on the production expectation difference in the Northern Hemisphere. In the 25/26 sugar - making season, India's production progress was fast, with a significant year - on - year increase in sugar production, while Thailand's production progress was slow and the output was lower than expected. Domestically, Zhengzhou sugar fluctuated. In December, Guangxi's production and sales both decreased. In December, the single - month sugar production in Guangxi was 1.808 billion tons, a year - on - year decrease of 431,000 tons; sugar sales were 795,400 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 551,800 tons; the industrial inventory was 1.0571 billion tons, a year - on - year decrease of 62,100 tons. The sales volume decreased significantly due to strong bearish sentiment in the market. Although there was a strong expectation of increased production in Guangxi in the 25/26 sugar - making season, the production progress was slow. If the output cannot increase later, the futures price will repair upwards. It is advisable to wait and see [3] Apple - The futures price continued to rebound. In the spot market, the mainstream price was stable, and demand increased. In Shaanxi, the asking price of some soft semi - commercial fruit from farmers decreased, and farmers' willingness to sell increased. Cold - storage merchants in the origin mainly packed their own goods for the market and purchased less from farmers. As merchants started to stock up for the Spring Festival, the cold - storage trading volume increased. As of January 8th, the national cold - storage apple inventory was 6.7337 billion tons, a year - on - year decrease of 9.03%. The national cold - storage apple destocking volume was 287,300 tons, a year - on - year increase of 10.37%. The market's trading logic shifted to demand. This year's apple quality was poor, but the purchase price was high, and the sentiment of hoarding among traders and farmers was strong, which may affect the destocking speed. It is advisable to wait and see [4] 20 - rubber, Natural Rubber, and Synthetic Rubber - Today, the futures prices of natural rubber RU, 20 - rubber NR, and butadiene rubber BR all decreased. The domestic natural rubber spot price decreased, the synthetic rubber spot price was stable, the overseas butadiene port price was stable, and the raw material market price in Thailand varied. Globally, the natural rubber supply entered the production - reduction period, with China's Yunnan production area fully stopped, Hainan about to fully stop, and Vietnam gradually stopping later. This week, the operating rate of domestic butadiene rubber plants increased, with the plants of Maoming Petrochemical and Dushanzi Petrochemical still under maintenance, and the operating rate of upstream butadiene plants continued to rise. This week, the operating rate of domestic tire factories continued to decline, the finished - product inventory of all - steel tires of Shandong tire enterprises decreased, while that of semi - steel tires continued to rise. This week, the total natural rubber inventory in Qingdao increased to 548,300 tons, with both the bonded area and general trade inventory increasing; the social inventory of Chinese butadiene rubber increased to 15,100 tons, and the upstream Chinese butadiene port inventory decreased to 41,300 tons. In general, demand is slowly recovering, natural rubber supply is decreasing, synthetic supply is increasing, rubber inventory is increasing, cost support is stable, and market sentiment is weakening. It is advisable to wait and see [5] Pulp - Today, the pulp price increased slightly. Limited by weak downstream demand, the short - term upward space may be restricted. The spot price of coniferous pulp Moon was 5,500 yuan/ton, and that of Russian coniferous pulp in Jiangsu, Zhejiang, and Shanghai was 5,400 yuan/ton; the price of broad - leaf pulp Goldfish was 4,750 yuan/ton. As of January 8, 2026, the inventory of mainstream pulp ports in China was 2.007 billion tons, an increase of 10,000 tons from the previous period, a month - on - month increase of 0.5%, showing a continuous inventory - accumulation trend. The narrowing price difference between coniferous and broad - leaf pulp provided some support to coniferous pulp. Recently, the overseas quotes of coniferous and broad - leaf pulp have both increased. Paper mills mainly purchase pulp for rigid demand, and the price of base paper has relatively weak follow - up increases. It is advisable to wait and see or conduct short - term operations [6] Logs - The futures price fluctuated. In the spot market, the mainstream price was stable. In terms of supply, the overseas quote decreased, and the domestic spot price remained weak, with the short - term arrival volume expected to decrease. In terms of demand, as of January 2nd, the average daily outbound volume of logs at 13 ports across the country was 56,500 cubic meters, a week - on - week decrease of 3.09%. Demand entered the off - season, and the recent outbound volume decreased. As of January 2nd, the total log inventory at ports across the country was 2.67 billion cubic meters, a month - on - month increase of 5.12%. The total national log inventory was relatively low, with relatively low inventory pressure. Overall, the low inventory provided some support to the price. It is advisable to wait and see [7]