国投期货化工日报-20260109

1. Report Investment Ratings for Different Chemical Products - Positive Outlook (Red Stars): Methanol, Pure Benzene, PX, Ethylene Glycol, Propylene are rated ★★★, suggesting a clear upward trend and good investment opportunities; Urea, PVC, and Soda Ash are rated ★☆☆, indicating a bullish bias but limited operability on the trading floor [1]. - Negative Outlook (Green Stars): There are no products with a green - star rating in the report. - Balanced Outlook (White Stars): Polypropylene, Styrene, Short - fiber, Glass, and Caustic Soda are rated ☆☆☆, meaning the short - term trend is balanced, and it's advisable to wait and see [1]. 2. Core Views of the Report - Overall Market: The chemical market shows a mixed performance. Some products are affected by supply - demand changes, cost factors, and geopolitical risks. Different products have different trends in price, production, and inventory [2][3][5]. - Investment Strategies: For some products, such as far - month pure benzene, consider long - short spreads; for soda ash, use a right - side short - selling strategy; hold the long - glass short - soda ash Q5 strategy; for glass, look for long - entry opportunities after a pull - back [3][8]. 3. Summary by Product Categories 3.1 Olefins - Polyolefins - Propylene: The main futures contract rose slightly. Production enterprises had smooth sales, and multiple plants planned to reduce production or undergo maintenance, boosting market sentiment [2]. - Polyethylene: Market sentiment was strong, downstream factories replenished stocks, and production enterprises raised factory prices. The market price trended upward, and low - price transactions were acceptable [2]. - Polypropylene: Supply was tight, and some petrochemical factory prices were high, leading to a price - support intention. However, downstream buyers were resistant to high prices, and trading volume decreased [2]. 3.2 Pure Benzene - Styrene - Pure Benzene: The spot price in East China was stable. Hydro - benzene production increased, imports were sufficient, and port inventory in Jiangsu continued to accumulate. The industry profit improved, and downstream capacity utilization was expected to rise. In the short - term, it will continue to fluctuate, and consider long - short spreads for far - month contracts [3]. - Styrene: The main futures contract rose but was pressured by the semi - annual line. Production enterprises had stable sales, inventory decreased, but the accumulation of raw material pure benzene suppressed the price rebound [3]. 3.3 Polyester - PX and PTA: Prices declined. The terminal market weakened, polyester cash flow was low, and production started to decline. The overnight oil price increase slightly boosted the market. PX was expected to be strong in the medium - term, and PTA's processing margin moderately recovered [5]. - Ethylene Glycol: New domestic plants were about to start production, and overseas plants shut down due to low profitability. Polyester production was expected to decrease, port inventory continued to accumulate, and it will fluctuate at a low level around the Spring Festival. Supply - demand may improve in the second quarter, but it will face long - term pressure [5]. - Short - fiber: Enterprises had low inventory, but downstream orders were weak. Profits were thin, and downstream factories would gradually take holidays after mid - January. The price fluctuated with raw materials, and attention should be paid to downstream restocking [5]. - Bottle chips: Demand weakened, downstream buyers restocked as needed, the spot price was slightly lower, and the price followed raw materials. Before the Spring Festival, production and demand will decline, and over - capacity will be a long - term pressure [5]. 3.4 Coal Chemicals - Methanol: The trading floor saw intensified long - short battles. Overseas plant operation rates were low, and future imports were expected to decrease significantly. However, high coastal inventory and downstream negative feedback may suppress the market [6]. - Urea: The price slightly declined, and enterprise inventory stopped falling and started to rise. Gas - based plants were shut down for maintenance, commercial reserves increased at low prices, and industrial demand was mainly for immediate use. The daily output was expected to increase, but the decline space was limited due to the upcoming spring agricultural demand [6]. 3.5 Chlor - Alkali - PVC: The price declined. Maintenance decreased, production increased, downstream demand was weak, and exports were mainly from ethylene - based enterprises. The calcium carbide price increase provided cost support, and the price center is expected to rise in 2026 [7]. - Caustic Soda: The price fluctuated. The chlorine market was good, integrated profits were acceptable, and production was at a high level. Downstream alumina production was high, but the industry was generally in the red. Liquid caustic soda inventory continued to accumulate, and the alumina production cut expectation will suppress the price rebound [7]. 3.6 Soda Ash - Glass - Soda Ash: The price was weakly fluctuating. Supply pressure was high as production increased. Recent trading was mainly by futures - cash arbitrageurs, and downstream buying sentiment was low. Float and photovoltaic glass industries continued to cut capacity, and soda ash inventory continued to accumulate, facing oversupply. Consider short - selling on the right - side and hold the long - glass short - soda ash Q5 strategy [8]. - Glass: The price fell from a high level. The spot market continued to destock, and prices varied by region. All three fuel - based production lines were in the red, and production capacity was compressed to 150,000 tons. Processing orders were weak, and demand was insufficient. After the capacity drops below 150,000 tons, supply - demand will reach a weak balance, and look for long - entry opportunities after a pull - back [8].