股指黄金周度报告-20260109

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the short - term, due to repeated digestion of previous policy benefits and unremarkable improvement in corporate earnings, the stock index has a need for adjustment after continuous rise; with the upcoming adjustment of the benchmark commodity index weight and the upgrade of precious metal trading supervision, gold is in a high - level shock, and it is necessary to be vigilant against adjustments caused by the emergence of profit - taking selling pressure [35] - In the medium and long - term, the valuation of the stock index will still be dragged down by the decline in the corporate earnings growth rate at the molecular end, while the support at the denominator end mainly comes from the recovery of risk appetite, and the stock index maintains a wide - range shock idea in the medium term; the stimulating effect of the US tax - cut policy on the economy will gradually appear, the room for the Fed to cut interest rates further in the future is narrowing, and there is a risk of a deep adjustment in gold [35] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Domestic and International Macroeconomic Data - In December 2025, the official manufacturing PMI rose to 50.1 (previous value 49.2), returning to the expansion range after 8 months, with industrial production accelerating significantly and demand improving marginally. In December, CPI increased by 0.8% year - on - year (previous value 0.7%), and the year - on - year decline of PPI was 0.9%, narrowing by 0.3 percentage points compared with the previous month [6] 3.2 Stock Index Fundamental Data - The effect of the "anti - involution" policy is gradually emerging. Commodity prices such as new energy, non - ferrous metals, and coal have rebounded, and the year - on - year decline of PPI has narrowed, which helps to improve the profits of upstream raw material processing [12] - The margin trading balance of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets rose to 2603.143 billion yuan, hitting a new record high. The central bank carried out a total of 138.7 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations this week, achieving a net withdrawal of 1655 billion yuan [15] 3.3 Gold Fundamental Data - The number of new ADP jobs in the US in December was 41,000, lower than the expected 47,000. The number of JOLTs job openings in November dropped to 7.146 million, the lowest since February 2021, indicating that the US labor market is slowly recovering and concerns about weak employment have eased [20][21] 3.4 Domestic and International Gold Inventory Situation - Shanghai gold futures warehouse receipts and inventory increased, and the inventory of COMEX gold in New York increased slightly, reflecting an increase in physical delivery demand [33] 3.5 Strategy Recommendation - In December 2025, the official manufacturing PMI returned to the expansion range, industrial production accelerated significantly, and demand improved marginally, but the downward pressure on external demand remained large, and the prosperity of small and medium - sized enterprises was still weak. CPI has risen for three consecutive months year - on - year, and the year - on - year decline of PPI has narrowed, reflecting a recovery in consumer demand and prices and a relief of downward pressure on industrial products [35] - In terms of corporate earnings, driven by the "anti - involution" and elimination of backward production capacity policies, the prices of commodities such as new energy and non - ferrous metals have risen, which helps to repair the profits of upstream raw material processing industries; however, the operating pressure of downstream enterprises is still large, some industries have over - capacity, and production costs are difficult to be passed on to end - consumers, and they are still in the stage of active inventory reduction [35] - The central bank's work conference in 2026 emphasized increasing the intensity of counter - cyclical and cross - cyclical adjustments and flexibly and efficiently using various monetary policy tools such as reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts. Recently, the policy side has continuously released positive signals, and the market's expectation of reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts at the beginning of the year has increased, which helps to improve risk appetite [35] - The military strike launched by the US against Venezuela during the New Year's Day holiday has caused turmoil in the international geopolitical situation. After the holiday, the rise in the gold price is mainly driven by risk - aversion sentiment. Recently, the market is worried that the annual weight adjustment of the commodity benchmark index may lead to passive selling of gold and silver, and some funds have taken profits in advance. In addition, the CME has continuously raised the performance margin for precious metals, which helps to suppress excessive speculation and reduce irrational fluctuations [35]