饲料养殖周度报告-20260109

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - In the short - term, the bearish expectations of the rapeseed meal sector suppress the market, while soybean meal awaits guidance from the USDA report. There may be a turnaround in China - Canada trade, and the bearish sentiment for rapeseed meal continues. - In the medium - to - long - term, the overall upside potential is limited under the global supply - abundant fundamental situation [34][35]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Domestic Main Feed and Aquaculture Futures and Spot Price Trends - The closing price of the soybean meal futures main contract (M2605) on January 8, 2026, was 2782, up 33 from December 31, 2025, with a weekly increase of 1.20%. The spot price was 3110, up 50 from the previous week, with a weekly increase of 1.63%. - The closing price of the rapeseed meal futures main contract (RM605) on January 8, 2026, was 2358, down 7 from December 31, 2025, with a weekly decrease of 0.30%. The spot price was 2540, up 10 from the previous week, with a weekly increase of 0.40%. - The closing price of the corn futures main contract (C2603) on January 8, 2026, was 2266, up 40 from December 31, 2025, with a weekly increase of 1.80%. The spot price was 2310, down 10 from the previous week, with a weekly decrease of 0.43%. - The closing price of the live hog futures main contract (LH2603) on January 8, 2026, was 11720, down 75 from December 31, 2025, with a weekly decrease of 0.64%. The spot price was 12.85, down 0.33 from the previous week, with a weekly decrease of 2.50%. - The closing price of the egg futures main contract (JD2603) on January 8, 2026, was 3009, up 47 from December 31, 2025, with a weekly increase of 1.59%. The spot price was 3.23, up 0.23 from the previous week, with a weekly increase of 7.67% [2]. 3.2 Fundamental Analysis 3.2.1 Cost Side - Weather: Recent rainfall in central Brazil is beneficial for soybean pod - setting, and the precipitation coverage will improve next week. - US Soybeans: As of the week ending January 1, 2026, the net sales volume of US soybeans in the 2025/26 season was 877,900 tons, a 26% decrease from the previous week and a 42% decrease from the four - week average. The export sales volume so far this season is 29% lower than the same period in 2025, while the USDA predicts an annual decline of 13%. The net sales volume of US soybeans to China (mainland only) in the 2025/26 season in that week was 470,000 tons, higher than 396,000 tons a week ago. The total sales volume of US soybeans to China so far in the 2025/26 season is 6.893 million tons, a 63.8% decrease from 19.036 million tons in the same period in 2025, and a 66.0% decrease a week ago. - Brazil: Brazilian soybean traders expect to export 77 million tons of soybeans to China in 2026, a decrease of 1 million tons from 2025. US soybean sales to China will weaken the demand for Brazilian soybeans to some extent. - Argentina: As of January 8, 2026, the soybean planting rate in the 2025/26 season in Argentina was 92%, up from 86% last week and compared with 96% in the same period in 2025 [10]. 3.2.2 Supply - Import: In November, China did not import soybeans from the US for the third consecutive month and turned to South America for supply. The total soybean import volume in November was 8.11 million tons, of which 5.85 million tons were from Brazil, a 48.5% year - on - year increase, accounting for 72% of the total import volume in that month; the export volume to China from another source soared to 1.78 million tons, a more than six - fold year - on - year increase, accounting for nearly 22% [10]. 3.2.3 Demand - Pressing: In December 2025, the soybean pressing volume of domestic oil mills remained high, about 9.05 million tons for the whole month, and soybean meal was continuously accumulating inventory. The import volume of soybeans in January decreased, and it is expected that the soybean pressing volume will decrease slightly to about 8 million tons, with a soybean meal output of about 6.4 million tons. - Transaction: On January 8, the spot market prices of soybean meal in China showed mixed trends. The total transaction volume of soybean meal in major domestic oil mills was 351,800 tons [10]. 3.2.4 Inventory - As of the end of the first week of 2026, the total inventory of imported soybeans in China was 6.876 million tons, an increase of 29,000 tons from the previous week; the inventory of domestic soybean meal was 1.135 million tons, a decrease of 41,000 tons from the previous week, a 3.52% month - on - month decrease; the contract volume was 6.376 million tons, an increase of 1.69 million tons from the previous week, a 36.09% month - on - month increase [10]. 3.3 Supply Side - Import - As of January 8, the CNF import price of Brazilian soybeans was 451.00 US dollars per ton, an increase of 8 US dollars per ton from the previous week. The CNF import price of US West Coast soybeans was 472.00 US dollars per ton, the same as the previous week [14]. 3.4 Supply Side - Pressing - As of the week ending January 8, the soybean pressing profit was - 6.70 yuan per ton, a recovery of 54.45 yuan per ton from the previous week. - As of the week ending January 2, the weekly soybean pressing volume of domestic oil mills was 1.9838 million tons, an increase of 201,600 tons from the previous week. - As of January 2, the operating rate of domestic soybean oil mills was 50%, a 5 - percentage - point recovery from the previous week [19]. 3.5 Inventory Side - As of January 9, the port inventory of imported soybeans was 8.3396 million tons, a recovery of 54,000 tons from the previous week. Seasonally, the soybean port inventory is at a very high level in the past 5 years. - As of January 2, the oil mill's soybean meal inventory was 1.0505 million tons, a decrease of 51,500 tons from the previous week. Seasonally, the soybean meal inventory of domestic mainstream oil mills is at a very high level in the past 5 years [21]. 3.6 Demand Side - As of January 2, the average daily trading volume of soybean meal in domestic mainstream oil mills was 139,900 tons, the same as the previous week. Seasonally, it is at a relatively high level in the past 5 years [25]. 3.7 Rapeseed Meal Supply Side The report presents data on rapeseed import volume from different countries to China, rapeseed meal production in China on different time scales (annual, monthly, weekly), and the expected arrival volume of rapeseed at domestic pressing plants [29]. 3.8 Rapeseed Meal Demand and Inventory Side The report shows data on rapeseed meal's initial inventory, supply, demand, and consumption in China, as well as the inventory and trading volume of rapeseed meal in different regions [32]. 3.9 Strategy Recommendation - Soybean Meal: Since the easing of China - US relations, China's purchasing progress affects the trend of US soybeans. Due to the lack of a formal trade agreement between China and the US, there are still doubts about the subsequent purchasing rhythm, and the uncertainty suppresses the price of US soybeans. In South America, the good weather in Brazil indicates a bumper harvest, which also puts pressure on US soybeans. In China, as the festival approaches, the rigid demand for soybean meal from feed and aquaculture enterprises increases. Coupled with the reduction of soybean pressing after the New Year's Day holiday, the output of soybean meal decreases, supporting the continuous small - scale upward trend of the spot price of soybean meal. The average spot trading price of soybean meal in oil mills has risen to the highest level in 8 months. - Rapeseed Meal: The upcoming visit of the Canadian Prime Minister to China may put pressure on the price of rapeseed, causing fluctuations in the domestic rapeseed market sentiment. Currently, domestic pressing enterprises have completely shut down, and the spot supply is in short supply. Traders have a strong willingness to hold prices, and the spot price of rapeseed meal remains stable overall. The crushing progress of imported Australian rapeseed is slow, and the inventory of rapeseed products in coastal oil mills remains low. The unit - protein price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal shows that rapeseed meal is not cost - effective, and the demand is mediocre. The focus of the rapeseed market is still on the import side, and attention should be paid to news - related disturbances [34].