焦炭日报：短期延续反弹-20260109

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoint of the Report - The coke market is expected to continue its short - term rebound, and it should be treated with a low - buying strategy. The supply - demand pattern of coke is directly affected by upstream coking coal costs, downstream steel demand, and macro - policies. Although the comprehensive inventory of coke is at a moderately high level and the overall supply - demand is weak, the seasonal inventory build - up of downstream steel mills and the continuous increase in hot metal production have boosted the short - term demand for coke. Additionally, there are still expectations of interest rate cuts by the domestic central bank and the Federal Reserve, along with the interference of production - cut news [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Analysis - Coke inventory: As of January 9, the inventory of independent coking enterprises decreased by 6.04% month - on - month to 86.07 tons, the inventory of steel mills increased by 0.27% to 645.73 tons, the port inventory rose to 249.1 tons, and the comprehensive inventory increased by 2.22 tons to 980.9 tons, reaching a three - month high and decreasing by more than 1% year - on - year [1] - Profit: The average profit per ton of 30 independent coking plants nationwide is - 45 yuan/ton; the average profit of Shanxi quasi - first - grade coke is - 30 yuan/ton, Shandong quasi - first - grade coke is 17 yuan/ton, Inner Mongolia second - grade coke is - 86 yuan/ton, and Hebei quasi - first - grade coke is 9 yuan/ton [1] - Downstream demand: The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills increased by 0.37% to 79.31%, the blast furnace iron - making capacity utilization rate increased by 0.78% to 86.04%, the steel mill profitability decreased by 0.44% to 37.66%, and the daily average hot metal output continued to increase by 2.07 tons to 229.5 tons, reaching a one - month high and increasing by 5.13 tons or 2.29% year - on - year [1] - Upstream coking coal: The inventory of coking coal in coal mines continued to increase slightly, the port inventory increased by 551.96 tons, the inventory of independent coking enterprises increased to 1071.68 tons, and the inventory of steel mills decreased by 797.73 tons. The comprehensive inventory of coking coal increased to 2716.37 tons, reaching a nine - month high, and the year - on - year decline exceeded 15% [2] - News: Mysteel research shows that mines in Shaanxi and Inner Mongolia have not received official documents on production capacity reduction, and the actual impact of the rumored "19 million tons of production capacity reduction in Yulin" is limited. The Indonesian energy minister said that Indonesia may approve a coal production quota of about 6 billion tons in 2026, lower than last year's 7.9 billion tons. Key coking enterprises reached a consensus to continue active production cuts and stop supplying steel mills that propose further price cuts [2] 3.2 Futures and Spot Market Conditions - Futures market: The 05 coke contract opened at 1765, closed at 17485, with an intraday low of 1719. It oscillated within the day, added 113 lots, and is expected to continue its short - term rebound. Attention should be paid to the support at the intraday low and the pressure near the previous high [3] - Spot market: On the 8th, the port coke spot market was stable. The trading atmosphere in the domestic trade spot market was average, with the price of quasi - first - grade coke at 1480 yuan/ton and first - grade coke at 1580 yuan/ton [4]