化工行业2026年度投资策略：周期有望回暖，新兴需求成长可期

Key Points - The chemical industry is expected to experience a recovery, with supply growth slowing and a replenishment cycle beginning. The government continues to strengthen policy guidance, and a new round of supply-side reforms is on the horizon. Focus on sectors such as refrigerants, potash fertilizers, organic silicon, and phosphorus chemicals, which are on an upward trend [5][10][20]. - Emerging demand growth opportunities in new materials are noteworthy. For lithium battery materials, the acceleration of solid-state battery industrialization is beneficial for related materials. In photolithography, strong downstream semiconductor demand is driving the need for photolithography materials, with accelerated domestic substitution [5][10][82]. - The refrigerant sector is seeing a supply contraction alongside demand release, leading to a sustained uptrend in the third-generation refrigerants. Key companies to watch include Jinshi Resources, Juhua Co., Sanmei Co., and Yonghe Co. [5][41]. - The potash fertilizer market is recovering due to production cuts by major players, with global demand expected to grow. Key companies include Yara International and Salt Lake Co. [5][47][55]. - The organic silicon industry has passed its peak expansion phase, with profitability expected to recover as the industry moves towards a supply-demand balance. Companies to focus on include Dongyue Silicon Material, Xingfa Group, Xin'an Chemical, and Luxi Chemical [5][56]. - The phosphorus chemical sector remains strong, with high prices supported by raw material costs and growing demand from the energy storage market. Companies to watch include Yuntianhua, Xingfa Group, Chuanheng Co., and Batian Co. [5][66][75]. - The industrial gas market is growing, with domestic production increasing. Key players include Qiaoyuan Co. [5][76]. - The solid-state battery industry is on the verge of industrialization, with significant advancements expected in the coming years. Companies to focus on include Dangsheng Technology [5][82]. - The photolithography market is expanding due to strong demand from the semiconductor industry, with domestic companies like Tongcheng New Materials and Jingrui Electric Materials leading the way [5][84].