玉米震荡反弹，远月乐观

Report Title - Corn Oscillates and Rebounds, with Optimism for the Far Month [2] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content Core Viewpoints - The corn market is expected to oscillate in the short term. Grain - using enterprises are advised to purchase spot goods as needed and maintain a safe reserve, while traders are advised to buy low and sell high [6] Summary by Related Catalogs Market Price and Basis - The main corn 2603 contract continued its rebound trend. The spot price was relatively stable, with the FOB price of corn in Bayuquan around 2310 yuan/ton and the arrival price of corn in Shekou Port around 2450 yuan/ton. The corn basis oscillated weakly, and the discount of the futures price narrowed. The main starch 2603 contract oscillated and rebounded. The starch price was stable at 2800 yuan/ton in Weifang Jinyu Corn Starch, and the basis also oscillated weakly [3] New Grain Sales and Inventory - New grain sales showed regional differentiation, and farmers were reluctant to sell. As of January 8, the national grain sales progress was 5%, 2% faster than the same period last year. Among them, the progress in Northeast China was 49% (6% faster), in North China was 45% (2% slower), and in Northwest China was 65% (1% slower). As of January 2, the corn inventory in the northern ports was 153.8 tons, a significant decrease compared to the same period last year, and the weekly shipping volume was 59.3 tons, dropping from a high. The domestic trade corn inventory in Guangdong Port was 47.8 tons, rising continuously, while the foreign trade corn inventory was 29.4 tons, falling. The inventories of downstream processing and feed enterprises continued to increase. As of January 9, the corn inventory of deep - processing enterprises was 354 tons, rising continuously but at a low level in recent years, and the corn inventory of feed enterprises was 30.1 days, rising [3] Grain Substitution and Import - There was a lack of grain substitution, and the import of corn continued to rise. The price difference between wheat and corn remained high, making substitution unfeasible. In November, the import of corn was 55.5 tons, a 55% increase from the previous month and an 85% increase from the same period last year. From January to November, the cumulative import volume was 184.7 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 86.3%. The imports of barley and wheat also increased [4] External Market and Global Inventory - The US corn in the external market oscillated and rebounded recently. The USDA's December supply - demand report increased the export of US corn and reduced its ending inventory, but there was still pressure of increased production and inventory compared to last year. The global ending inventory of corn was slightly reduced, a 4.85% decrease compared to last year [4] Feed and Deep - Processing Demand - Feed demand slowed down, and deep - processing demand was insufficient. Pig prices rebounded, and the loss in pig farming narrowed significantly. As of January 2, the profit from purchasing piglets for fattening was - 48.35 yuan per head, and the self - breeding and self - fattening profit was - 34.59 yuan per head. The production capacity of sows continued to decline. In October, the national inventory of sows was 39.9 million, a decrease of 450,000 from the previous month. In the poultry sector, egg prices rebounded, but farming continued to incur losses. In December, the sales volume of chicks increased, and the culling of old hens reached a recent high. In November, the national industrial feed output was 28.73 million tons, a month - on - month decrease but a 6% year - on - year increase. Deep - processing enterprises had insufficient demand. The processing profits of starch processing enterprises were mostly in the red, and the operating rate continued to decline to 59.37% as of January 9. The starch inventory was 1.125 million tons, at a high level in the same period. Alcohol processing enterprises continued to lose money, and the operating rate dropped to 62.04%. The operating rate of downstream starch sugar enterprises increased, and that of paper - making enterprises was relatively strong [5]