每日核心期货品种分析-20260109

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the report industry investment rating is provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints - The domestic futures market showed mixed performance on January 9, 2026. Palladium led the gainers, while polysilicon suffered the most significant losses. Stock index futures generally rose, and bond futures mostly declined. Different commodities had their own supply - demand situations and price trends affected by various factors such as geopolitical events, production changes, and policy announcements [7][8] 3. Summary by Commodity Commodity Performance - As of the close on January 9, palladium rose over 6%, low - sulfur fuel oil and SC crude oil rose over 3%, and fuel oil rose over 2%. Among the decliners, polysilicon dropped over 8%, and沪镍 and BR rubber declined over 2%. Stock index futures like IF, IH, IC, and IM all rose, while bond futures TS, TF, T, and TL mostly fell. In terms of capital flow,中证 2603,中证 1000 2603, and沪深 2603 had capital inflows, while沪铜 2602, polysilicon 2605, and 30 - year treasury bond 2603 had outflows [7][8] Market Analysis - Copper (沪铜): After a significant rise in the past two days, it declined. The strike at a Chilean copper mine may reduce production by 70%. In December 2026, China's electrolytic copper production increased. The downstream copper products market is in the year - end settlement period, and the copper foil market has stronger demand. With high inventory and weak follow - up procurement, copper is expected to have limited downward adjustment [10] - Lithium Carbonate: It reached a high and then declined. A research team made a major breakthrough in lithium resource separation technology. In December 2025, production increased, and the inventory is accumulating. Although there are some policies to support the terminal market, the upward momentum is weakening [12] - Crude Oil: OPEC + decided to maintain the production plan and suspend the increase in February and March 2026. The US crude oil inventory decreased unexpectedly, but the refined oil inventory increased. The overall oil inventory is rising, and the market still worries about demand. The situation in Venezuela and Iran may affect oil prices, and the price is in a weak oscillation [13][14] - Asphalt: The supply decreased, with a decline in the start - up rate and expected production in January 2026. The downstream start - up rate mostly dropped, and the inventory rate rose. The US military action in Venezuela may affect domestic asphalt production and cost. The price is expected to fluctuate significantly [15][17] - PP: The downstream start - up rate decreased slightly, and the enterprise start - up rate increased slightly. The cost is affected by the weak oil price. With new production capacity and reduced downstream orders, the upward space is limited, and the L - PP spread is expected to narrow [18] - Plastic: The start - up rate remained stable, and the downstream start - up rate increased slightly. New production capacity was put into operation, and the agricultural film season is ending. The upward space is limited, and the L - PP spread is expected to narrow [19][20] - PVC: The upstream calcium carbide price is stable. The supply - side start - up rate increased, and the downstream start - up rate had a slight change. The export orders decreased, and the inventory is high. It is recommended to wait and see in the traditional off - season [21][23] - Coking Coal: The price showed a weak oscillation. The Mongolian coal supply may slow down, and domestic production increased. After the fourth round of coke price cuts, the fifth round is less likely to be implemented. The coking enterprises increased inventory, and the steel industry has a low - load operation expectation [24] - Urea: It opened low and closed down. The supply increased as the shutdown devices resumed production. The market trading activity decreased, and the inventory started to accumulate. It is expected to oscillate in the short term [25][26]