关税裁决引市场提前布局，钯金2026开年顺利走出强势形态

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - Palladium has shown a strong performance since the beginning of 2026, with a significant divergence from platinum in high - frequency data. The core driver of palladium's rapid rise is the market's pre - trading of potential adjustments to US tariff policies. The US Supreme Court is about to rule on the legality of Trump's general tariffs. If the tariff is ruled illegal, the probability of the 232 investigation will increase significantly, leading to pre - layout of funds and price increase [2]. - The upward trend of platinum and palladium in the first quarter remains unchanged. The structural tightness on the spot end has not eased, and the spot tight balance is the core fundamental factor supporting prices. However, platinum and palladium prices are likely to follow silver's retracement, and the retracement amplitude is usually larger [2]. - In the short term, the tariff ruling result of the US Supreme Court will be a key watershed for market sentiment and fund flow. The policy's impact on silver, platinum, and palladium prices needs continuous attention [3]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Market Performance - Since May 2025, palladium has generally followed platinum, but it has been significantly stronger since the beginning of 2026. The divergence between the two at the high - frequency data level has further widened. Palladium ETFs continue to see inflows, while platinum ETFs experience outflows. The forward rate of palladium has risen, and NYMEX palladium inventory has accumulated, showing a differentiation from platinum and silver [2]. Investment Strategies 场内期权 - For low - buying traders, when palladium's implied volatility is high and its absolute price is in a large - scale oscillation area, they can sell out - of - the - money put options to collect premiums and buy at - the - money call options as a hedge. If the price drops rapidly, stop losses on the put side in time and keep the call options to capture the upward movement driven by tariff expectations [4]. 场外期权 - For investors with low - buying trading needs, during the window period when palladium's volatility is high and its absolute price is in a large - scale oscillation, it is recommended to arrange a fuse fixed - payout accumulator option with a moderately extended cycle and a relatively far - away lower strike price to continuously increase revenue during market oscillations. If the market retraces again, low - position long positions can be gradually established [5].