天富期货碳酸锂、多晶硅、工业硅日报-20260109

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The lithium carbonate market is in a situation of "strong reality, strong expectation", and the operation should still be mainly to go long on dips [1]. - The polysilicon market may continue to be weak, and attention should be paid to the support level at 50,000 yuan [7]. - The industrial silicon market is expected to remain under pressure, and it is currently oscillating in the range of 8,500 - 9,000 yuan [10][12]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Lithium Carbonate - Market Trend: The lithium carbonate futures fluctuated widely today. The main 2605 contract fell 1.09% from the previous trading day's closing price, reporting 143,420 yuan/ton [1]. - Core Logic: The recent trading logic mainly includes the confirmed price increase of downstream lithium iron phosphate and the smooth price transmission downstream, as well as the concerns about the stability of South American lithium resource supply due to the sudden change in the geopolitical situation in Venezuela. Today's weekly production and inventory data showed an increase of 115 tons in production and a stockpile of 337 tons. However, there is a phenomenon of traders locking in inventory, and the inventories of smelters and downstream are at the lowest levels of the year, with the smelter inventory reaching a three - year low [1]. - Technical Analysis: From the perspective of overall capital sentiment, the lithium carbonate futures are still controlled by bulls. However, the position has been declining recently, and the risk of bulls taking profits and closing positions should be vigilant. The 5 - minute cycle of the main 2605 contract is a red line, blue ribbon, and red ladder. The overnight 2 - hour cycle is still a strong red ladder line, and the long - short dividing water level is 121,580 yuan/ton [1]. - Strategy Suggestion: In the context of "strong reality, strong expectation", the operation should still be mainly to go long on dips. Do not chase the high directly. Find good entry positions according to the "First K Breakthrough Method" or "Three - Line Resonance Method" intraday, and specific operations can be heard in the 8:30 morning live broadcast [1]. - Follow - up Focus: Follow - up attention should be paid to whether the exchange supervision intervenes, the recovery of new energy vehicle sales data after the subsidy continuation, and the actual impact of the geopolitical situation on lithium ore supply [2][3]. 3.2 Polysilicon - Market Trend: The polysilicon futures continued to decline today. The main 2605 contract fell 4.31% from the previous trading day's closing price, reporting 51,300 yuan/ton [5]. - Core Logic: It was confirmed today that the State Administration for Market Regulation interviewed the China Photovoltaic Industry Association and leading enterprises on January 6, requiring them not to make agreements on production capacity, capacity utilization, production and sales volume, and sales price, etc. Previously, the polysilicon futures were trading in a high - level range between 55,000 and 60,000 yuan. Now, the silicon material price can no longer be maintained at a high level through cooperation and will return to cost competition. Leading enterprises may squeeze out small enterprises by reducing costs through technology, and the price may continue to fall [5][7]. - Technical Analysis: The position of polysilicon futures still declined significantly today. The 5 - minute cycle of the 2605 contract is a green line, green ribbon, and green ladder, and the overnight 2 - hour cycle is a weak green ladder line. The long - short dividing water level is 59,365 yuan/ton [7]. - Strategy Suggestion: The polysilicon market may continue to be weak, and attention should be paid to the support level at 50,000 yuan [7]. - Follow - up Focus: The follow - up policy trend of "anti - involution" [7]. 3.3 Industrial Silicon - Market Trend: The industrial silicon futures fluctuated strongly today. The 2605 contract rose 2.11% from the previous trading day's closing price, reporting 8,715 yuan/ton [10]. - Core Logic: The interview of the photovoltaic association and leading enterprises by the State Administration for Market Regulation will cause the silicon material price to lose the coordinated support and return to cost competition. In the long run, polysilicon enterprises will reduce the purchase price and quantity of industrial silicon, directly putting pressure on the industrial silicon price. Coupled with the weak supply - demand situation and high inventory of industrial silicon itself, it lacks upward momentum [10]. - Technical Analysis: The overall position of industrial silicon futures declined significantly. The 5 - minute cycle of the 2605 contract is a green line, red ribbon, and green ladder, and the overnight 2 - hour cycle is a weak green ladder line. The long - short dividing water level is 9,000 yuan/ton [10]. - Strategy Suggestion: It is currently oscillating in the 8,500 - 9,000 yuan range. In the long term, attention can be paid to the impact of polysilicon returning to cost - based pricing on industrial silicon. Intraday operations can refer to the Band Winner indicator in the 8:30 morning live broadcast [12]. - Follow - up Focus: The follow - up policy trend of "anti - involution" [12].