Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The overall inflation level in China remains moderate, with the 12 - month CPI and core CPI both rising 0.2% month - on - month, and the PPI rising 0.2% month - on - month. The 2026 People's Bank of China Work Conference emphasizes continuing to implement a moderately loose monetary policy. The main contract of Treasury bond futures showed a pattern of bottoming out and rebounding this week, and the short - term Treasury bond futures may fluctuate. Attention should be paid to the impact of the stock market. For trading - type investments, a band - operation strategy is recommended [27][28]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Treasury Bond Futures Weekly Market Review - This week, the main contract of Treasury bond futures showed a pattern of bottoming out and rebounding. From Monday to Wednesday, it declined, rose on Thursday, and moved sideways on Friday. For the whole week, the 30 - year Treasury bond fell 0.46%, the 10 - year Treasury bond fell 0.06%, the 5 - year Treasury bond fell 0.15%, and the 2 - year Treasury bond fell 0.11% [5]. - As of January 9th, compared with December 31st, the maturity yield curve of Treasury bond cash bonds shifted upward in parallel. The 2 - year Treasury bond yield rose 8 basis points from 1.36% to 1.44%, the 5 - year Treasury bond yield rose 3 basis points from 1.63% to 1.66%, the 10 - year Treasury bond yield rose 3 basis points from 1.85% to 1.88%, and the 30 - year Treasury bond yield rose 3 basis points from 2.27% to 2.30% [8]. 3.2 CPI Data - In December, the national consumer price (CPI) rose 0.8% year - on - year, with a market expectation of 0.75% and a previous value of 0.7%. For the whole year of 2025, the national consumer price was flat compared with the previous year. Food prices were an important factor driving the larger year - on - year increase in CPI in December, rising 1.1% year - on - year, compared with a 0.2% increase in the previous month [11]. - In December, the CPI rose 0.2% month - on - month, compared with a 0.1% decline in the previous month. Food prices rose 0.3% month - on - month for five consecutive months, non - food prices rose 0.1% month - on - month, consumer goods prices rose 0.3% month - on - month, and service prices remained flat month - on - month. The core CPI rose 0.2% month - on - month, compared with a 0.1% decline in the previous month [13]. - According to the eight - category classification, in December, food and tobacco prices rose 0.2% month - on - month, affecting the CPI to rise about 0.05 percentage points. Housing prices fell 0.1% month - on - month, transportation and communication prices remained flat, medical care prices rose 0.1% month - on - month, education, culture and entertainment prices rose 0.1% month - on - month, clothing prices remained flat, daily necessities and services prices rose 0.4% month - on - month, and other supplies and services rose 2.8% month - on - month [16]. 3.3 PPI Data - In December, the national industrial producer price (PPI) fell 1.9% year - on - year, with a market expectation of a 2.0% decline and a previous value of a 2.2% decline. For the whole year of 2025, the industrial producer price fell 2.6%. Production materials prices fell 2.1% year - on - year, and living materials prices fell 1.3% year - on - year [18]. - In December, the PPI rose 0.2% month - on - month for three consecutive months, with production materials prices rising 0.3% month - on - month and living materials prices remaining flat month - on - month. Among them, mining industry prices rose 0.8% month - on - month for five consecutive months since August, raw material industry prices rose 0.6% month - on - month, and processing industry prices rose 0.2% month - on - month for three consecutive months [21]. 3.4 Capital Interest Rate - After the New Year, the capital interest rate remained low this week. The weighted average of DR001 from Monday to Friday was 1.267%, the weighted average of DR007 was 1.455%, and the average issuance interest rate of one - year AAA inter - bank certificates of deposit was 1.632%. The central bank conducted 1.1 trillion yuan of outright reverse repurchase operations on Thursday, with the same amount of reverse repurchases maturing on the same day, achieving a full offset [24]. 3.5 Market Logic - In December, China's Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) was 50.1%, returning to the expansion range after eight consecutive months below the boom - bust line. The production index was 51.7%, and the new order index was 50.8%, indicating that both manufacturing production and demand entered the expansion range. The service business activity index was 49.7%, remaining below the boom - bust line [27]. - The rise in gold, silver, and non - ferrous metal prices in December contributed to the increase in inflation indicators [27].
通胀温和上涨，期债探底回升
Ge Lin Qi Huo·2026-01-09 13:11