市场预期反复，矿价高位偏空对待

Report Title Market Expectations Fluctuate, Treat Iron Ore Prices at High Levels with a Bearish Outlook Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core Viewpoints - This week, iron ore prices trended strongly, mainly driven by macro - sentiment and capital, with the previous sharp rise in non - ferrous metals also having a certain impact on iron ore prices. The supply side remains loose, and domestic steel demand is expected to continue to decline year - on - year, with mid - term demand likely to remain at a low level. In the first half of 2026, steel demand is expected to continue to decline, and the weakening of the domestic iron ore fundamentals is likely to continue, making it difficult for high iron ore valuations to persist. Overall, the recent rise in the futures market has boosted sentiment, but the rapid decline in domestic steel demand is expected to dominate mid - term iron ore prices. The current fundamentals of iron ore have changed significantly, and there is limited room for further price increases. In the mid - term, it is advisable to take a bearish stance with light positions at high prices [3]. - The trading strategy suggests taking a bearish stance with light positions for single - sided trading, while for arbitrage and options, it is recommended to wait and see [3]. Summary by Directory Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategy - Logic Analysis: The price of iron ore has been strong this week, with the fundamentals remaining largely unchanged. Macro - sentiment and capital are the main drivers, and the previous sharp rise in non - ferrous metals has also influenced the iron ore futures price. The supply side is in a loose situation, and domestic steel demand is expected to continue to decline year - on - year. In the mid - term, domestic demand is likely to remain at a low level. In the first half of 2026, steel demand is expected to contribute to a continuous decline, and the weakening of domestic iron ore fundamentals is likely to continue, making it difficult for high iron ore valuations to last. Although the recent rise in the futures market has boosted sentiment, the rapid decline in domestic steel demand is expected to dominate mid - term iron ore prices. There is limited room for further price increases, and a bearish stance with light positions at high prices is recommended in the mid - term [3]. - Trading Strategy: For single - sided trading, take a bearish stance with light positions at high prices; for arbitrage and options, wait and see [3]. Iron Ore Core Logic Analysis Supply - side Analysis - Global Iron Ore Shipment: Global iron ore shipments remain at a high level. In 2025, the total output of the four major mines was 1.15 billion tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.5% (23 million tons), with most of the increase contributed by Fortescue. The total shipment volume was 1.13 billion tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.1% (12 million tons), and most of the shipment decline was contributed by Rio Tinto. In 2026, the global shipments of the four major mines are expected to increase steadily by about 15 million tons. This week, global shipments were 36.77 million tons, an increase of 2.13 million tons from last week and 1.98 million tons year - on - year [6][7]. - Non - mainstream Iron Ore Shipment: Non - Australian and non - Brazilian iron ore global shipments have been at a high level year - on - year. From 2023 - 2025, non - Australian and non - Brazilian mines continuously contributed increments, with an average annual increment of over 20 million tons for three consecutive years. The Simandou mining area is expected to contribute most of the increment in 2026, with an annual increment of about 20 million tons. It is still in the production ramp - up stage in 2026 [8][9]. - Iron Ore Port Inventory: The current total inventory of imported iron ore at domestic ports is at the highest level in the past six years, and the fundamentals remain in a loose pattern. In 2025, the total inventory of imported iron ore in China increased slightly. In the first half of the year, due to supply - side disturbances, the inventory decreased by over 10 million tons, but in the second half of the year, with the recovery of the supply side and the relatively rapid weakening of terminal demand, the inventory continued to increase, with the maximum inventory accumulation approaching 20 million tons and the annual inventory accumulation being about 10 million tons. In the first half of 2026, the loose supply pattern of global iron ore is expected to continue [10][11]. Demand - side Analysis - Domestic Steel Demand: In 2026, there is no expectation of an increase in domestic steel demand, and it is expected to continue the pattern of 2024 - 2025. From 2023 - 2025, overseas iron element consumption increased continuously year - on - year, with an average annual increase of over 30 million tons. The terminal steel demand structure has changed significantly in the past three years, with iron element exports (steel + billets + indirect) contributing the largest increment and volatility in terminal steel demand. However, the impact of overseas steel demand on domestic iron ore prices is transmitted relatively slowly [12][13]. Price and Spread Analysis - Imported Iron Ore Port Price: Various price indices and spreads of imported iron ore at ports are presented, including the Platts iron ore price index, the price difference between different iron ore products at Qingdao Port, and the relationship between steel mill cash profits and the price difference of high, medium, and low - grade iron ore powders [17][18]. - Imported Iron Ore Port Profit: The import profits of different types of iron ore, such as PB powder, Carajás fines, Super Special fines, and others, are shown [19][20]. - Profit of East China Mainstream Steel Mills: The cash profits of East China's threaded steel and hot - rolled coils, as well as the cost data of iron water, hot - rolled coils, steel billets, and threaded steel in East China, are provided [21][22]. - Domestic and Overseas US Dollar Spread: The spreads between SGX (Singapore Exchange) and DCE (Dalian Commodity Exchange) iron ore contracts, the premium rate of Singapore iron ore over domestic iron ore, and the spread between iron water and scrap steel in East China are analyzed [23][24]. - Iron Ore Futures Basis and Inter - period Spread: The basis of the optimal deliverable iron ore against different DCE contracts and the inter - period spreads are presented [25][26]. Shipment of Global Four Major Mines The global shipment volumes of Rio Tinto, Vale, BHP, FMG, and CSN's iron ore, as well as the arrival volume at 45 ports, are shown [27][28]. Imported Iron Ore Port Inventory The inventory data of different types of imported iron ore at ports, including powder ore, lump ore, pellet, non - trade ore, iron concentrate, and non - Australian and non - Brazilian ore, are provided [29][30].