塑料日报：震荡上行-20260109

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core View of the Report - On January 9th, the change in maintenance devices was small. The plastic operating rate remained at around 87%, at a neutral level. The PE downstream operating rate rose 0.06 percentage - points to 41.21% after the New Year's Day. The agricultural film was gradually out of the peak season, and the overall PE downstream operating rate was still at a low level in the same period in recent years. The New Year's Day inventory accumulation was not large, and the petrochemical inventory was at a neutral level in the same period in recent years. Although the macro - atmosphere was warm, the improvement of the plastic supply - demand pattern was limited. It was expected that the upward space of plastic in the near future was limited, and the L - PP spread was expected to decline [1]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Analysis - On January 9th, the plastic operating rate was around 87%. After the New Year's Day, the PE downstream operating rate rose 0.06 percentage - points to 41.21%. The agricultural film was out of the peak season, and its orders continued to decline, while packaging film orders increased slightly. The overall PE downstream operating rate was at a low level in the same period in recent years. New production capacities of 500,000 tons/year of ExxonMobil (Huizhou) LDPE, 700,000 tons/year of PetroChina Guangxi Petrochemical, and 500,000 tons/year of BASF (Guangdong) were put into production. It was expected that the downstream operating rate would decline. Although the macro - atmosphere was warm, the improvement of the plastic supply - demand pattern was limited, and the upward space was limited. The L - PP spread was expected to decline [1]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market Conditions 3.2.1 Futures - The plastic 2605 contract increased positions and fluctuated upward, with a minimum price of 6,602 yuan/ton, a maximum price of 6,685 yuan/ton, and closed at 6,674 yuan/ton, below the 60 - day moving average, up 0.17%. The position decreased by 14,010 lots to 491,289 lots [2]. 3.2.2 Spot - The PE spot market showed mixed trends, with a price range of - 100 to + 100 yuan/ton. LLDPE was reported at 6,500 - 6,770 yuan/ton, LDPE at 8,650 - 9,110 yuan/ton, and HDPE at 6,750 - 8,340 yuan/ton [3]. 3.3 Fundamental Tracking - Supply: On January 9th, the change in maintenance devices was small. The plastic operating rate was around 87%, at a neutral level [4]. - Demand: As of the week of January 9th, after the New Year's Day, the PE downstream operating rate rose 0.06 percentage - points to 41.21%. The agricultural film was gradually out of the peak season, with orders and raw material inventory decreasing. Packaging film orders increased slightly, and the overall PE downstream operating rate was at a low level in the same period in recent years [4]. - Inventory: On Friday, the petrochemical early inventory decreased by 0.5 million tons to 5.7 million tons, 100,000 tons higher than the same period last year. The New Year's Day inventory accumulation was not large, and the petrochemical inventory was at a neutral level in the same period in recent years [4]. - Raw materials: The Brent crude oil 03 contract rose to $62/barrel. The Northeast Asian ethylene price remained flat at $725/ton, and the Southeast Asian ethylene price remained flat at $745/ton [4].