铁矿日报：铁水恢复，港口库存累积-20260109

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - The iron ore market shows a trend of gradually strengthening in an oscillatory manner. Although there may be a certain decline and adjustment in the short term, the downside space is limited. The supply side of new shipments begins to decrease gradually, the demand side recovers slightly, the port inventory is still accumulating but gradually transferring to downstream steel mills, and the futures contract's back structure and positive basis provide strong support below [4]. Summary of Each Section Market行情态势回顾 - The main contract of iron ore futures fluctuated narrowly during the day, closing at 814.5 yuan/ton, up 1.5 yuan/ton or +0.18% from the previous trading day's closing price. The trading volume was 270,000 lots, the open interest was 640,000 lots, and the precipitated funds were 11.466 billion yuan. The disk price faced pressure and pulled back near the previous high of 840, and is expected to be weak in the short term [1]. - The mainstream spot varieties at the port, such as PB powder at Qingdao Port, remained unchanged at 821 yuan/ton, and Super Special powder remained unchanged at 700 yuan/ton. The main swap contract was at 108.35 (+0.1) US dollars/ton, with no change in spot and swap prices [1]. - The price of PB powder at Qingdao Port converted to the disk price was 857.4 yuan/ton, with a basis of 42.9 yuan/ton, and the basis slightly shrank. The spread between iron ore contracts 1 - 5 was 37.5 yuan, and the spread between contracts 5 - 9 was 21.5 yuan. The iron ore futures contracts showed a back structure + positive basis, and although it was weak in the short term, the downside space may be limited [1]. Fundamental Analysis - After the year - end rush, overseas mine shipments decreased significantly month - on - month. Shipments from Australia, Brazil, and non - mainstream regions all weakened. The current arrival volume increased month - on - month, and it is expected that the previous high shipments will still support the high - level operation of arrival volumes. There are expected disturbances on the supply side [2]. - On the demand side, molten iron production recovered month - on - month. After the previous blast furnace maintenance, the blast furnaces were restarted, the steel mill profitability rate recovered slightly, and inventory replenishment gradually started, but the overall rhythm was still slow. There is still an expectation of blast furnace restart in January, and attention should be paid to the recovery height of molten iron before the Spring Festival and the release rhythm of inventory replenishment demand. After the sharp rise in futures and spot prices, the port trading volume decreased significantly month - on - month [2]. - In terms of inventory, port inventory continued to accumulate, the number of berthed ships increased slightly, and the inventory pressure was still building up. The steel mill inventory increased to a certain extent but was still significantly lower than the historical average. The release of inventory replenishment demand was still slow. The general rise in commodity prices drove the iron ore disk to break through upwards, and the sentiment resonated with the restart of molten iron production and steel mill inventory replenishment, supporting the price to run strongly [2]. Macro - level Analysis - Domestically, policy expectations in the first quarter are gradually rising. The manufacturing PMI rebounded in December, with both supply and demand improving marginally. In addition, the national subsidy policy for 2026 has been released, with certain optimizations and adjustments compared to 2025. The National Development and Reform Commission recently stated that it has organized and issued the list of "two important" construction projects and the central budgetary investment plan for the early batch of 2026, totaling about 295 billion yuan, and is accelerating the allocation and use of various funds. At the same time, the National Development and Reform Commission recently approved or approved multiple major infrastructure projects with a total investment of more than 400 billion yuan. Coupled with the 500 billion yuan of new policy - based financial instrument funds that were not fully distributed in October, the investment side is expected to gradually stabilize in the first quarter [3]. - Overseas, Trump may announce the nomination of the new chairman of the Federal Reserve in January. Currently, in market expectations, Hassett is still the most popular candidate, and the interest rate cut path may be faster in the next one to two years [3].