软商品日报：溢价回落-20260109

Group 1: Report's Core View - The core contradiction in the cotton textile industry chain lies in the mismatch between the expected tightening of the supply - side and the actual weakness of the demand - side, which determines the uncertainty of the subsequent market trend. In the short - term, Zhengzhou cotton prices may continue to be volatile and strong before the Spring Festival, but in the medium - to - long - term, there is significant pressure for price correction [1]. - The sugar price has recovered some losses, but the possible global sugar market surplus in the 2025/26 season seems to suppress further price increases. The basis between the sugar futures and spot has been basically repaired, and the valuation of the far - month contracts has also been somewhat repaired. The near - month contracts still face large supply pressure, and the short - term upward momentum is weak [2]. Group 2: Cotton Market Summary - Short - term trend: Before the Spring Festival, Zhengzhou cotton prices may continue to be volatile and strong, supported by the expected reduction in planting area, and the average price of domestic 3128B grade lint cotton may reach a maximum of 15,500 yuan/ton [1]. - Medium - to - long - term trend: In the 2025/26 season, the national cotton output is expected to reach 7.46 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 11.34%. The commercial inventory at the end of December has risen to 6.7166 million tons and is expected to reach the annual peak of 6.8532 million tons in January. Supply pressure persists, and factors such as weak downstream order recovery and increased imported cotton volume may trigger price corrections [1]. - Near - term prediction: It is estimated that cotton may adjust next week, with limited downside space, and attention should be paid to the support near the 20 - day moving average [1]. Group 3: Sugar Market Summary - Production forecast: Thailand's sugar production is expected to be 10.3 million tons in the 2025/26 season and will decrease to 10 million tons in the 2026/27 season [2]. - Price situation: The sugar price has recovered some losses, but the possible global sugar market surplus in the 2025/26 season suppresses further price increases. The basis between the sugar futures and spot has been basically repaired, and the valuation of the far - month contracts has also been somewhat repaired [2]. - Short - term trend: Near - month contracts still face large supply pressure, and the short - term upward momentum is weak. The large price difference between the domestic and foreign markets may attract more imports, and attention should be paid to the cost of out - of - quota imports, where one can consider buying at low prices [2].