玻璃日报：短期震荡偏强-20260109

Report Industry Investment Rating - The short - term investment rating for the glass industry is "shockingly strong" [1] Core Viewpoint - Recently, consecutive cold repairs of glass production lines have led to a concentrated contraction in short - term supply, improving the phased supply - demand structure. Coupled with positive macro expectations, short - term prices may maintain a shockingly strong operation. It is advisable to buy on dips in the short term. Future attention should be paid to macro - policy changes and production line cold - repair situations [4] Summary by Directory Market行情回顾 - In the futures market, the glass main contract opened high and went low, with intraday shockingly weak performance. The 120 - minute Bollinger Bands' three tracks are upward, indicating a short - term continuation of the shockingly strong signal. The intraday pressure is near the 40/60 weekly moving averages, and the support is near the 5 - day moving average. The trading volume decreased by 615,000 lots compared to yesterday, and the open interest decreased by 38,159 lots. The intraday high was 1168, the low was 1129, and the closing price was 1144, down 7 yuan/ton or 0.61% from the previous settlement price [1] - In the spot market, trading in mainstream areas was good, with a slight reduction in inventory and price increases. In North China, market sentiment declined, and shipments were mainly pre - orders. In East China, the market center shifted upward, with fair rigid - demand shipments but no inventory - building intention. In Central and South China, there was little fluctuation, most enterprises kept prices stable, and a few raised prices, mainly for rigid demand [1] - The basis in North China was - 124 yuan/ton, with a spot price of 1020 [1] Fundamental Data - Supply: As of January 8, the daily average output of national float glass was 150,100 tons, a decrease of 0.96% compared to the 1st. The national float glass output was 1.0592 billion tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.32% and a year - on - year decrease of 3.9%. The industry's average start - up rate was 71.96%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.08%, and the average capacity utilization rate was 75.63%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.03%. The 1000 - ton/day design capacity of Hunan Qibin Optoelectronic Technology Co., Ltd.'s Chenzhou No. 1 line is expected to be shut down for cold repair today, and Yunnan Diankai Energy - Saving Technology Co., Ltd. with a design capacity of 520 tons/day stopped feeding last night, and output is expected to further shrink [2] - Inventory: The total inventory of national float glass sample enterprises was 55.518 million heavy boxes, a month - on - month decrease of 1.348 million heavy boxes or 2.37%, and a year - on - year increase of 27.04%. The inventory days were 24.1 days, a decrease of 1.5 days from the previous period. Currently, the overall inventory of glass enterprises is showing a downward trend, and most regions are driven by sales policies, improved market sentiment, and favorable production capacity reduction, with enterprise inventory shifting to the middle and lower reaches and expected to continue to decline [2] - Demand: The average order days of national deep - processing sample enterprises was 8.6 days, a month - on - month decrease of 10.7% and a year - on - year decrease of 16.1%. Currently, engineering orders are gradually ending, and the executable order days are decreasing, mainly concentrated in 10 - 15 days. Home - decoration orders are still mainly low - value scattered orders [2][3] Main Logic Summary - On the supply side, production lines using natural gas as fuel have long - term losses, and those using coal and petroleum coke are also in a loss state, accelerating the exit of some enterprises' production capacity. Six glass production lines were shut down for cold repair before New Year's Day, and three more were cold - repaired this week, further shrinking supply. However, real - estate development investment and capital availability have continued to decline year - on - year, with weak completion and new construction, and real - estate demand has not improved [4]