棕油：棕油上涨、棉花回调

1. Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The palm oil price is expected to be strong in the future due to the decline in Malaysian palm oil production and potential export tariff hikes in Indonesia [1][2]. - The cotton price adjustment space is limited as the expected reduction in planting area strengthens supply contraction expectations and downstream demand is resilient [1][5]. - The prices of various agricultural products show different trends, and corresponding trading strategies are proposed for each variety. 3. Summary by Variety Palm Oil - The palm oil main 2605 contract is rising steadily. Malaysian palm oil production decreased by 4.64% month - on - month to 1.84 million tons in December, and concerns about Indonesian supply are rising. Technically, it is strong. The strategy is to go long on dips with light positions, with support at 8600 - 8620 [2]. Two - Meal (Rapeseed Meal and Soybean Meal) - The rapeseed meal main 2605 contract continues to fall due to possible improvement in China - Canada economic and trade relations and weak demand in the aquaculture off - season. Technically, it is weak, and the strategy is to go short on resistance levels. The soybean meal is supported by strong spot prices and rigid demand from breeding enterprises, and the 2605 contract's market may fluctuate [3]. Cotton - The cotton main 2605 contract is still adjusting to digest long - profit taking pressure. The expected reduction in planting area in Xinjiang strengthens supply contraction, and downstream demand is strong. The main trend of the upward movement remains unchanged. The strategy is to go long after the price stabilizes on dips [5]. Live Pigs - The live pig main 2603 contract is rising in an oscillatory manner. The出栏 pressure in January has decreased, and demand is expected to pick up. Technically, it is in an upward trend. The strategy is to go long on dips with light positions, with support at 11715 - 11750 [7]. Sugar - The Zhengzhou sugar main 2605 contract is rising in an oscillatory manner, supported by the expected consumption recovery at the end of the year. Sugar production in Guangxi has decreased year - on - year, and demand is expected to pick up. Technically, it is strong. The strategy is to go long with light positions [10]. Eggs - The egg main 2603 contract is rising steadily, boosted by the pre - Spring Festival demand peak. The production capacity is gradually decreasing, and market trading is active. Technically, it is strong. The strategy is to go long on dips with light positions, with support at 3010 - 3030 [11][13].