白糖周报：印度双周糖产大增，国内压榨进入高峰期-20260109

Report Title - Sugar Weekly Report: India's Bi - weekly Sugar Production Soars, Domestic Pressing Enters Peak Season [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - Internationally, Brazil's sugar supply pressure will gradually ease as its sugarcane enters the harvest stage, and the market focus shifts to the Northern Hemisphere where most sugar production is in an increasing cycle. India's high bi - weekly production may lead to an unexpected increase, putting downward pressure on international sugar prices. However, due to the low sugar price and strong commodity market, the US sugar price is expected to fluctuate at the bottom in the short term. Domestically, the high processing cost of white sugar and the bottom - building trend of the US sugar price support the domestic sugar price, but the peak pressing season and the expected global sugar production increase in the 25/26 season may cause significant pressure on the upper shock platform. The domestic sugar price is expected to fluctuate in the short term [3]. - Trading strategies include: for single - side trading, international sugar prices are expected to fluctuate at the bottom, and domestic white sugar prices are expected to fluctuate within a range, so consider low - buying and high - selling within the range; for arbitrage, take a wait - and - see approach; for options, sell put options [4]. Summary by Directory Chapter 1: Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategies - Core Logic: International market: Brazil's sugar supply pressure eases, market focus on the Northern Hemisphere, India's potential over - expected production increase affects prices. Domestic market: cost supports prices, but peak pressing and expected global production increase bring pressure [3]. - Trading Strategies: Single - side: international sugar price bottom - shock, domestic sugar price range - shock, low - buy and high - sell. Arbitrage: wait - and - see. Options: sell put options [4]. Chapter 2: Core Logic Analysis 1.1 International Supply - Demand Pattern Change - Increasing Cycle - According to ISO, in the 2025/26 sugar season, the global sugar market will have a surplus of 1.63 million tons, with production increasing by 3.15% to 181.77 million tons and consumption only increasing by 0.6% to 180.14 million tons. Czarnikow predicts a global sugar supply of 185.4 million tons, a consumption of 178.2 million tons, and a surplus of 7.2 million tons. The 2026/27 season may maintain a high level or slightly decrease [9]. 2.1 Brazil's Sugar Production Expected to Remain High - In the 2025/26 season, Brazil's sugar production is expected to be 45.02 million tons. For the 2026/27 season, different institutions have different forecasts, with production ranging from 38 million to 44 million tons [13]. 2.2 Brazil's Pressing Season Nearing End - In the second half of November, Brazil's central - southern region had a cane crushing volume of 15.993 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 21.08%; sugar production was 724,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 32.94% [16]. 2.3 This Season's Brazil's Production Increase May Fall Short of Expectations - As of the second half of November 2025/26, Brazil's central - southern region had a cumulative crushing volume of 592.266 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.92%; cumulative sugar production was 39.904 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.38%. The final production increase may be less than expected [19]. 2.4 Brazil's Ethanol Production and Sales Situation - The current alcohol - to - sugar price is about 16.87 cents per pound, and the alcohol - to - gasoline ratio in São Paulo is about 0.68 [21]. 2.5 Brazil's Sugar Inventory Drops Slightly, Exports Decrease - In December, Brazil exported about 2.913 million tons of sugar, a year - on - year increase of 2.9%. As of December in the 2025/26 season, the cumulative sugar export was 28.1722 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 4.16%. As of November 30, the sugar inventory in Brazil's central - southern region was 10.4175 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.4432 million tons [23]. 3.1 Thailand's New Season Expected to Increase Production - In the 25/26 season, Thailand's sugar production is expected to be 11 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 960,000 tons. From January to October 2025, the export was 5.1349 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.39 million tons. However, as of December 29, 2025/26, the cumulative cane crushing volume decreased by 19.27% year - on - year, and the final production increase may be less than expected [29]. 3.3 25/26 Season India's Sugar Production Increase May Exceed Expectations - As of December 31, 2025, India's 2025/26 season sugar production reached 11.897 million tons, a year - on - year increase of nearly 25%. The final production may significantly increase year - on - year and may exceed expectations [34]. Chapter 3: Weekly Data Tracking 4.1 Domestic Sugar Production Situation - As of December 31, 2025/26, in Guangxi, 73 sugar mills had all started production, with a cumulative cane crushing volume of 16.2303 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 5.2515 million tons; sugar production was 1.9419 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 0.8095 million tons. In Yunnan, as of December 31, 2025, 36 sugar mills were in operation, with a cumulative cane crushing volume of 3.461 million tons, a year - on - year increase, and sugar production of 0.3923 million tons, a year - on - year increase [37]. 4.2 Domestic Sugar Sales and Inventory Situation - As of December 31, 2025/26, in Guangxi, the cumulative sugar sales were 0.8848 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 0.7474 million tons; the sales - to - production ratio was 45.56%, a year - on - year decrease of 13.76 percentage points. In Yunnan, the cumulative sugar sales were 0.2814 million tons, and the sales - to - production ratio was 71.72% [40]. 4.3 November Import Volume Decreases - In November 2025, China imported 440,000 tons of sugar, a year - on - year decrease of 93,400 tons. The import of syrup and premixed powder in November was 114,400 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 108,200 tons [45]. 4.4 High Import Profits - The extra - quota cost of Brazilian sugar is 5,050 yuan, with a profit of 470 yuan; the extra - quota cost of Thai sugar is 5,100 yuan, with a profit of 410 yuan. However, most prices have been fixed, so the correlation between domestic and foreign price differences is not significant [48].