玉米现货稳定，盘面高位震荡

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints of the Report - The USDA's December report increased US corn exports, but the production is at a high level. In the short term, US corn will fluctuate slightly stronger. The support of the US corn 03 contract at 430 cents per bushel is relatively strong. With the 11% tariff for imported US corn and 12% for sorghum in China, importing US corn has become profitable, and importing from Brazil offers higher profits [4]. - Currently, farmers' reluctance to sell has weakened, leading to an increase in corn supply. Port inventories remain low, and port prices are stable. It is expected that there will be another wave of selling pressure for Northeast corn in mid - January. In the short term, the supply of Northeast corn is increasing, but downstream demand for replenishment is driving a relative stability in Northeast corn prices. In North China, the increase in corn supply has led to a continuous decline in spot prices. The price difference between wheat and corn in North China remains high, and it is expected that corn supply will increase next week. In the short term, the supply at the northern ports will increase, and the purchase price will remain stable before the Spring Festival. The 03 corn contract will fluctuate at a high level, and the decline of the 07 corn contract is limited [4]. - The operating rate of starch factories has increased, while downstream提货 has decreased, leading to an increase in starch inventory, which remains at a high level. As corn spot prices are weak, starch spot prices are also weakening. The profits of North China starch factories have declined, and the operating rate of starch enterprises will continue to rise. As corn prices decline, there is still room for starch spot prices to fall. It is expected that the 03 corn starch contract will follow the high - level fluctuations of corn [4]. Summary by Directory Chapter One: Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategies - Market Situation: US corn exports are increasing, and the 03 contract has strong support at 430 cents per bushel. In China, corn supply in the Northeast and North China is increasing, and there will be a peak selling season in mid - January. Corn spot prices still have room to fall. In the short term, corn prices will continue to decline, and the 03 contract has limited room for rebound [4]. - Trading Strategies - Unilateral trading: Consider buying US corn 03 below 430 cents per bushel, making long - term purchases of 07 corn below 2240 yuan, and short - term shorting of 03 corn [5]. - Arbitrage: Hold a wait - and - see attitude. - Options: Consider a cumulative put strategy for 03 corn at high prices [5]. Chapter Two: Core Logic Analysis International Market - US Corn Supply and Demand - The USDA's December report shows changes in US corn supply and demand indicators such as planting area, yield, inventory, and consumption in different years. The export volume has been adjusted, and attention should be paid to the January report. Importing US corn and Brazilian corn is currently profitable [9]. - As of January 1, the weekly US corn export inspection was 1.21 million tons, with a cumulative export of 26.81 million tons. This week, there were no exports to China, with a cumulative export of 0 tons and a proportion of 0%. In November, 560,000 tons of corn were imported, and from January to November, 1.85 million tons were imported, compared with 13.32 million tons in the same period last year [10]. - US Corn Non - commercial Net Long Position and Ethanol Production - As of December 30, the non - commercial net long position of US corn decreased, and ethanol production also decreased. The US corn 03 contract is oscillating at the bottom, with strong support at 430 cents per bushel [15]. Domestic Market - Deep - processing and Feed Enterprises - The corn inventory of feed enterprises has increased but is lower than the same period last year. As of January 8, the average corn inventory of 47 large - scale feed mills was 30.1 days, a week - on - week increase of 0.18 days and a year - on - year decrease of 6.81% [19]. - Deep - processing consumption has slightly decreased. From January 1 to January 7, 2026, 149 major corn deep - processing enterprises in China consumed 1.3817 million tons of corn, a decrease of 0.11 million tons from the previous week. Deep - processing inventory has increased, and it is expected to continue rising next week. As of January 7, the corn inventory of 96 deep - processing enterprises was 354 tons, a 1.32% increase from the previous week and a 40.5% decrease year - on - year [20]. - Port Inventories - The corn inventory at northern ports has decreased, while the grain inventory at southern ports has increased. As of January 2, the corn inventory at the four northern ports was 1.538 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 75,000 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 2.889 million tons. The shipping volume from the four ports this week was 593,000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 74,000 tons. In Guangdong Port, the domestic corn inventory was 478,000 tons, an increase of 93,000 tons from the previous week; the foreign - trade inventory was 294,000 tons, a decrease of 30,000 tons from the previous week; the imported sorghum was 107,000 tons, a decrease of 22,000 tons from the previous week; the imported barley was 710,000 tons, a decrease of 5,000 tons from the previous week; and the total grain inventory was 1.589 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 36,000 tons [23]. - Grain Sales Progress - The grain sales progress has accelerated. The overall national grain sales progress (including all 13 provinces) is 50%, a 3% increase from the previous week and a 2% increase year - on - year; the sales progress in 7 provinces (Heilongjiang, Jilin, Liaoning, Inner Mongolia, Hebei, Shandong, and Henan) is 48%, a 4% increase from the previous week and a 3% increase year - on - year [26]. - Starch Market - The operating rate of deep - processing enterprises has decreased. From January 1 to January 7, the national corn processing volume was 627,900 tons, and the starch production was 324,800 tons, a decrease of 27,000 tons from the previous week. The operating rate was 59.37%, a 0.49% decrease from the previous week [30]. - As North China corn spot prices fall, starch spot prices decline, and by - product prices remain stable, enterprise profits have decreased. This week, the profit per ton of corn in Heilongjiang was - 67 yuan, a decrease of 39 yuan from the previous week, and in Shandong, it was - 6 yuan, a decrease of 3 yuan [30]. - Downstream提货 has decreased, and with the decline in the operating rate, starch inventory has increased. It is expected to continue rising next week. As of January 7, the corn starch inventory was 1.125 million tons, an increase of 2,000 tons from the previous week, a 0.2% increase, a 2.1% increase from the beginning of the month, and a 25.1% increase year - on - year [30]. - Substitute Products - The wheat price in North China is basically around 2,490 yuan per ton, showing a weak trend. The price difference between wheat and corn has narrowed. North China corn is weak, while Northeast corn is stable. The price difference between North China and Northeast corn has narrowed, and the price difference between northern port corn and the 05 corn contract has declined [39]. Chapter Three: Weekly Data Tracking - Livestock and Poultry Breeding - From January 4 to January 8, the self - breeding and self - raising profit of pigs was 59 yuan per head, a decrease of 3 yuan per head from the previous week, and the profit from purchasing piglets was - 75 yuan per head, an increase of 3 yuan per head from the previous week [43]. - From January 4 to January 8, the breeding profit of white - feather broilers was 1.13 yuan per chicken, compared with 1.24 yuan per chicken last week. The egg - laying hen breeding cost this week was 3.52 yuan per catty, and the breeding profit was - 0.42 yuan per catty, compared with - 0.55 yuan per catty last week [49]. - Deep - processing Downstream Consumption - The operating rate of starch sugar: The operating rate of F55 high - fructose syrup this week was 60.77%, a 6.27% increase from the previous week, and the operating rate of maltose syrup was 57.1%, a 5.31% increase from the previous week [52]. - The operating rate of paper mills: The operating rate of corrugated paper this week was 65.86%, a 1.63% increase from the previous week, and the operating rate of containerboard was 66.8%, a 1.86% decrease from the previous week [52]. - Prices of Corn and Substitute Products - The report shows the price trends of corn and substitute products such as wheat, sorghum, and their price differences, as well as the price differences between different corn and starch contracts [53][57][61].