PVC日报：震荡运行-20260109

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report suggests a wait-and-see approach for PVC [1] Core Viewpoints - The PVC market is currently in a state of shock operation. The supply side shows an increase in the PVC start - up rate, while the downstream demand is poor, the export situation is not optimistic, and the social inventory is high. Although the macro - atmosphere is warm, the overall situation of PVC is still not favorable, so it is recommended to wait and see [1] Summary by Related Content Market Analysis - The calcium carbide price in the northwest region of the upstream is stable. The PVC start - up rate has increased by 1.04 percentage points to 79.67%, remaining at a neutral level in recent years. The downstream start - up rate has a slight increase but is still lower than before the New Year's Day holiday, and the orders for downstream products are not good. Last week, export orders decreased slightly, with low prices and limited demand in the Indian market. The CFR prices in India and Southeast Asia have dropped. The social inventory continues to increase and is still at a high level. The real estate is in the adjustment stage, and the improvement needs time. The macro - atmosphere is warm, but the chloro - alkali comprehensive gross profit is under pressure, and the output decline is limited [1] Futures and Spot Market - The PVC2605 contract decreased in position and fluctuated. The lowest price was 4825 yuan/ton, the highest was 4915 yuan/ton, and it closed at 4897 yuan/ton, down 0.73% with an increase of 16256 hands in the position to 1052924 hands [2] Basis - On January 9th, the mainstream price of calcium carbide - based PVC in East China was 4650 yuan/ton, and the futures closing price of the V2605 contract was 4897 yuan/ton. The current basis was - 247 yuan/ton, strengthening by 8 yuan/ton and at a low level [3] Fundamental Tracking - On the supply side, affected by some devices, the PVC start - up rate increased by 1.04 percentage points to 79.67%. New production capacities such as Wanhua Chemical, Tianjin Bohua, Qingdao Gulf, Gansu Yaowang, and Jiaxing Jiahua have been put into production or are in trial production [4] - On the demand side, the real estate is in the adjustment stage. From January to November 2025, the national real estate development investment was 7859.1 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 15.9%. The sales area and sales volume of commercial housing also decreased. As of the week of January 4th, the weekly transaction area of commercial housing in 30 large - and medium - sized cities decreased by 26.09% month - on - month and was at a low level in recent years [5] - In terms of inventory, as of the week of January 8th, the PVC social inventory increased by 3.48% month - on - month to 1.1141 million tons, 40.98% higher than the same period last year, and the inventory was still high [6]