原油日报：原油震荡上行-20260109

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report The crude oil market remains in a supply - surplus pattern, with prices in a weak and volatile state. Multiple factors such as OPEC+ production decisions, US production and inventory data, geopolitical situations in the Middle East and South America, and demand trends are influencing the market [1]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Analysis - On January 4, OPEC+ decided to maintain the production plan set in early November 2025, suspending production increases in February and March 2026. The next meeting is scheduled for February 1. During the off - peak demand season, EIA data shows that US crude oil inventories decreased more than expected, but refined oil inventories increased more than expected, leading to a continuous rise in overall oil inventories. US crude oil production slightly decreased but remained near the historical high, and the number of US rigs continued to rise slightly [1]. - Geopolitical events include the UK, France, and Ukraine signing an intention statement to send troops to Ukraine after the cease - fire, with US support. Trump warned to raise tariffs on Indian products if India does not limit Russian oil purchases. Reliance Industries said its refinery has not received Russian oil in the past three weeks and expects no deliveries in January [1]. - The crack spread of refined oil in Europe and the US is low. The US ISM manufacturing index in December 2025 slightly decreased and has been below 50 for 10 consecutive months. The market is still worried about crude oil demand. Middle East exports have increased, and global floating storage of crude oil is high [1]. - The global crude oil market showed signs of digesting the restricted Venezuelan oil exports before New Year's Day. The military action did not damage its key oil facilities, and its production accounts for less than 1% of global supply. The US government wants oil companies to invest in Venezuela, but the industry is cautious. Trump said Venezuela will transfer 30 - 50 million barrels of oil to the US, and Chevron is increasing oil transportation from Venezuela [1]. - The unrest in Iran has been escalating, with internet disruptions. Trump threatened "severe strikes" if there are more deaths. Iran has a large crude oil production, and its situation deserves attention [1]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - The main crude oil futures contract 2602 rose 3.52% to 432.7 yuan/ton, with a minimum price of 419.3 yuan/ton and a maximum price of 433.9 yuan/ton. The open interest decreased by 3139 to 29929 lots [2]. 3.3 Fundamental Tracking - EIA's monthly report adjusted up US crude oil production in Q4 2025 by 40,000 barrels per day to 13.86 million barrels per day, non - OPEC+ oil supply by 50,000 barrels per day, and global crude oil production by 300,000 barrels per day. It also adjusted down global oil demand in Q4 2025 by 90,000 barrels per day [3]. - IEA adjusted up the global oil demand growth rate in 2025 by 40,000 barrels per day to 830,000 barrels per day and in 2026 by 90,000 barrels per day to 860,000 barrels per day. It also adjusted down the global oil supply growth rate in 2025 by 100,000 barrels per day and in 2026 by 20,000 barrels per day [3]. - OPEC maintained the global oil demand growth rate in 2025 at 1.3 million barrels per day and in 2026 at 1.38 million barrels per day [3]. - On the evening of January 7, EIA data showed that US crude oil inventories for the week ending January 2 decreased by 3.832 million barrels, compared with an expected increase of 447,000 barrels, and were 4.08% lower than the five - year average. Gasoline inventories increased by 7.702 million barrels (expected: 3.186 million barrels), and refined oil inventories increased by 5.594 million barrels (expected: 2.109 million barrels). Cushing crude oil inventories increased by 728,000 barrels [3]. 3.4 Supply and Demand - OPEC's latest monthly report shows that its October 2025 crude oil production was adjusted down by 21,000 barrels per day to 28.481 million barrels per day, and its November production decreased by 10,000 barrels per day month - on - month to 28.48 million barrels per day, mainly due to production cuts in Iraq and Iran. OPEC+ production in November increased by 43,000 barrels per day month - on - month to 43.06 million barrels per day [4]. - US crude oil production for the week ending January 2 decreased by 16,000 barrels per day to 13.811 million barrels per day, remaining near the historical high [4]. - The four - week average supply of US crude oil products decreased to 19.871 million barrels per day, 1.68% lower than the same period last year. Gasoline weekly demand decreased by 4.59% to 8.17 million barrels per day, with a four - week average demand of 8.688 million barrels per day, 0.49% higher than the same period last year. Diesel weekly demand decreased by 5.45% to 3.195 million barrels per day, with a four - week average demand of 3.629 million barrels per day, 4.25% lower than the same period last year. The decline in gasoline and diesel demand led to a 0.77% week - on - week decrease in the single - week supply of US crude oil products [4][6].