螺纹日报：震荡偏弱-20260109

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - The report maintains a bullish view on the steel industry and suggests buying on dips [5] 2. Core View of the Report - The current demand for rebar is seasonally weak, but attention should be paid to the potential warming of winter storage sentiment to drive demand. Production continues to rise but is relatively low compared to recent years, and anti - involution policies are expected to shrink production capacity, providing downside support. Inventory has started to accumulate, but it is at a relatively low level, so the pressure is not significant. In January, it enters the inventory accumulation cycle, and subsequent inventory accumulation should be monitored. The raw material cost is strong, and the real estate demand continues to decline, limiting the upside space, but infrastructure demand may have certain resilience. The market is expected to remain in an oscillatory range, with a bullish outlook [5] 3. Summary by Relevant Content 3.1 Market Review - Futures Price: On Friday, the open interest of the rebar main contract decreased by 66,939 lots, and the trading volume shrank compared to the previous trading day, reaching 1,169,507 lots. The price decreased throughout the day while reducing positions. It stood above the 5 - day and 20 - day moving averages, with a minimum of 3,128 yuan/ton, a maximum of 3,174 yuan/ton, and closed at 3,144 yuan/ton, down 35 yuan/ton or 1.10% [1] - Spot Price: The mainstream spot price of HRB400E 20mm rebar was 3,310 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan from the previous trading day [1] - Basis: The futures price was at a discount of 166 yuan/ton to the spot price. The large basis provided some support, and winter storage on the futures market was cost - effective [1] 3.2 Fundamental Data - Supply - demand Situation - Supply: As of the week ending January 8, rebar production increased by 28,200 tons week - on - week to 1.9104 million tons, rising for four consecutive weeks, and was 83,700 tons lower year - on - year. The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 79.31%, up 0.37 percentage points week - on - week and 2.13 percentage points year - on - year; the blast furnace iron - making capacity utilization rate was 86.04%, up 0.78 percentage points week - on - week and 1.80 percentage points year - on - year; the steel mill profitability rate was 37.66%, down 0.44 percentage points week - on - week and 12.99 percentage points year - on - year; the daily average hot metal output was 2.295 million tons, up 20,700 tons week - on - week. Although production continued to rise, the weekly rebar production was still relatively low compared to recent years [2] - Demand: The off - season effect deepened, and winter storage was cautious. As of the week ending January 8, the apparent consumption decreased by 254,800 tons week - on - week to 1.7496 million tons and was 150,900 tons lower year - on - year. Construction in northern regions stopped, and projects in southern regions were nearing completion. The apparent demand decreased for three consecutive weeks. Future attention should be paid to the start of winter storage demand [2] - Inventory: Inventory started to increase. As of the week ending January 8, the total inventory increased by 160,800 tons week - on - week to 4.3811 million tons, starting to accumulate after 9 consecutive weeks of depletion. The social inventory was 2.9018 million tons, up 75,200 tons week - on - week but still at a low level in recent years, and the steel mill inventory was 1.4793 million tons, up 85,600 tons. The accumulation of social inventory indicated weak downstream demand, and future inventory accumulation should be monitored [3][4] - Macro - environment: The Central Economic Work Conference proposed to flexibly and efficiently use various policy tools such as reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts to maintain sufficient liquidity and smooth the monetary policy transmission mechanism. Efforts were made to stabilize the real estate market, control new supply, reduce inventory, and optimize supply according to local conditions, and encourage the purchase of existing commercial housing for affordable housing. The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points in December as expected. The macro - economic outlook was moderately positive. The 14th Five - Year Plan provided a transformation path for the steel industry, focusing on "controlling production capacity, optimizing structure, promoting transformation, and improving quality." The incremental demand was relatively limited, but the easing cycle provided some support, and the upper limit of demand determined the pressure [4] - Cost: The sharp rise in coking coal, coke, and iron ore provided strong cost support [5] 3.3 Driving Factor Analysis - Bullish Factors: Inventory at a three - year low, supply - side anti - involution production cuts, strict production capacity control, policy support for demand, marginal improvement in post - festival demand, loose macro - economic expectations, and sharp rise in raw material prices [5] - Bearish Factors: Excessive post - Spring Festival inventory accumulation, slow inventory depletion, accelerated blast furnace restart, cautious winter storage demand, continuous decline in real estate demand, restricted exports, and weak economic recovery [5]